This is the 18 October 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, recorded on the Iveragh Peninsula, the Ring of Kerry, about as far west as you can go in Ireland. We expected a little weakness in the Emini last weekend and a bounce by midweek. The bounce never came. The question now is whether 7680 is the low: the 15-minute chart finally has Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion sell and blue boxes there, but the 13,500 tick bar chart does not match up yet. The other story this week is being early. The Professionals were in the British Pound, the 10-year notes and the ags before the turn, and we had to sit through some jiggery pokery before the moves got going. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: a bounce from 7680, then a test of the lows, then another go at 8000. Cyclically the Emini has pullback to end of trend on the low, intermediate and highest timeframes, and the 15-minute and 45-minute charts have Big Pro Bars at 7680. The 13,500 tick bar chart still has no exhaustion sell and no Big Pro Bars at the lows, so expect a retest before the downtrend ends. Give it Monday and Tuesday.
- Uptrends in the British Pound and the 10-year notes. Both flushed out everybody, the 10-years on hot CPI and PPI numbers, then Big Pro Bars came in anxious to buy and the moves raced away with no blue Professional bars taking profits.
- Bottoms building in Gold, Silver and the ags. Gold has a Signal Long and a stair step trade at 4100, Silver has the classic setup with Professionals absorbing sellers below 60 to 62, and Corn, Soybeans and Wheat all have Big Pro Bars at the lows.
Macro Setup This Week
The CPI and PPI numbers both came in a lot stronger than expected. Bonds sold off on the logic that higher inflation means higher rates to tamp it down, but that selloff turned out to be the reason to flush everybody out, and the Professionals bought it. Crude is creeping higher to 99 with no Big Pro Bars at the highs, which is not a good sign for an end to the war and feeds straight back into the inflation story. Natural Gas is going the other way into a downtrend. In forex, the strong USD that smashed every currency down for weeks is finally showing cracks, with the British Pound leading and the Euro, Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen basing behind it.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: Broke 7840, Pros Step In at 7680
The Emini broke down from 7840 midweek and has not bounced. 13,500 tick bar: on Better Sine Wave we had another big things happen at triples signal at 7840, which gives big bounces or big breaks. With no exhaustion sell and no blue Professional bars there, it broke into a downtrend out of a squeeze pattern. The setup came straight from last weekend: blue Big Pro Bars getting short into the highs, then blue Professional bars on the retrace, a stair step trade down. We bounced off RAMBO patterns, the Amateurs getting excited at the very end, into an exhaustion buy with bearish divergence, and the next blue Professional bars on the retrace got short again. At the end of the week more blue Professional bars came in, but on the retrace rather than at the lows, and there is still no exhaustion sell, no Big Pro Bars and no blue boxes mirroring what happened at the highs. The good news is the cyclical confluence: pullback to end of trend on the low, intermediate and highest timeframes. 15-minute: much better. Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion sell and blue boxes at 7680, the same level as a couple of weeks ago, and so far it is holding. Better Sine Wave has pullback to end of trend on the low and intermediate timeframes with support on the highest. 45-minute: blue Professional bars at the lows, a test with more blue Professional bars, a rally, then Big Pro Bars on the retest of exactly the same level. 135-minute: a squeeze pattern with blue Professional bars, but we are sitting underneath resistance on the highest timeframe. Cyclical support is due as the intermediate lines come down to hit minus 100, but the timing is not there yet. Daily: cyclical support due on the intermediate timeframe. Although the 15-minute looks good, the 13,500 tick bar does not match up yet, so give it Monday to see if all these levels come together for another go at 8000. See it on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
6E - Euro FX Futures: Early Turn, Holding 1.1140
Last weekend I was wondering whether the forex charts had done enough on the downside, and the Euro showed why being early costs you. Blue Professional bars came in at the lows, but no Big Pro Bars, and the Big Pro Bars only printed on the retrace and on the way down. This week it held 1.1140, we got our signal and RAMBO patterns, a little ahead of ourselves, then came back down into Big Pro Bars with an exhaustion sell. The background is red and we have the makings of an uptrend; the level to clear is resistance at 1.1288.
6B - British Pound Futures: Flushed Out, Then Big Pro Bars Racing Away
The British Pound is the same story with a better ending. I was in a little early with the activity at the end of last weekend. A nice little move down cleared out everybody, then the Big Pro Bars came in anxious to buy, an exhaustion buy got the move going and we are away. No blue Professional bars taking profits, and an exhaustion sell on the dip got rid of some profit taking. Uptrend.
6A - Australian Dollar Futures: Exhaustion Sell, Signal Long at 69
The Aussie Dollar is looking better. Last weekend there was not much blue Professional activity, just a few bars like the Euro chart, so we had to wait for the Big Pro Bars. They came in at 69.00 with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, and we got a Signal Long. Right now it is just Amateur testing; it needs to get back above 69.60 to really get going.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Big Pro Bars at the Lows, Basing
The Japanese Yen also had Big Pro Bars at the lows this week. It is just basing at the moment and needs to break back out of the channel to get the move going.
ZN - 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: Hot CPI Flush, Pros Buy It Up
The 10-year notes sold off hard on the CPI and PPI numbers, both a lot stronger than expected. That was the reason to flush everybody out. We got a flush pattern and, just like the British Pound, bang, the Big Pro Bars came in anxious to buy it up as it raced away. RAMBO patterns at the moment, no blue Professional bars taking profits and the background is red. All of a sudden the 10-years are in an uptrend.
GC - Gold Futures: Bottoming at 4100, Stair Step Up
Gold came around too. Last weekend we were asking whether the Signal Long was enough, and we came back down to test the 4100s again. Big Pro Bars, blue Professional bars and blue boxes came in at the lows, we got the signal, and now there are one, two stair step trades with the blue Professional bars on the retrace. Gold is looking interesting for a bottom at 4100.
SI - Silver Futures: The Setup - Pros Absorbing the Sellers
Silver is almost there, and this is what we are looking for: an exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue boxes, blue bars, the background in blue and Big Pro Bars. That is when the Professionals are interested. They are absorbing the sellers down here, and we just need to wait for the break into an uptrend, hopefully above 60 to 62 to get out of the channel.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: Pros Interested Again, 84K to Break
Bitcoin has been uninteresting for a while. The odd signal two weeks ago had a lot of Big Pro Bars mid sequence, not at the highs or the lows. They took profits there and we sold off, took profits again and sold off again. Now they are starting to get interested. I would like to see an exhaustion sell down here; we have a signal and are just testing. Get above 83K and 84K this week.
ETH - Ethereum Futures: Pro Buying at 2450
Ethereum took the whole week on the 13,500 tick bar chart, so drop one timeframe to the 4500 tick bar chart. You can see the blue Professional bars on the retrace, on the way down and now seemingly at the bottom around 2450. There is a lot of interest in Ethereum down there.
CL - Crude Oil Futures: 99 and No Pro Sellers Yet
Crude is up at 99. The Big Pro Bars were in at the lows with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, we tested, and then it just crept up and up and up. There are no Big Pro Bars at the highs yet, which is not looking good for the end of the war, and Crude heading up feeds inflation.
NG - Natural Gas Futures: Exhaustion Buy, Signal Short
Natural Gas is going the other way. The Professionals took profits, we got an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence, it rolled over into a Signal Short, and there are no blue Professional bars taking profits down here. Downtrend.
ZC - Corn Futures: Big Pro Bars at the Lows, 488 to Break
We were talking about the ags last week because they were starting to set up. Corn has Big Pro Bars at the lows, and now it is testing with an exhaustion sell and more blue Professional bars. Let us see if we get the Signal Long this week and a break out of the channel above 488 to get the uptrend going.
ZS - Soybean Futures: Early Signal Long, Pros Back In
Soybeans are the same, but last week’s Signal Long was a little early. We came back down and more blue Professional bars came in. Let us see if we get another signal this week.
ZW - Wheat Futures: Big Pro Bars, Change in Trend Setting Up
Wheat was setting up last weekend too. Big Pro Bars came in at the lows and we got a signal, tested, tested, and came back down just below. More exhaustion sells and more Big Pro Bars: it is setting up for a change in trend.
Pattern of the Week: Being Early on the Big Pro Bars
The Big Pro Bars tell you what the Professionals are doing, but not always when the move starts. Last weekend the Euro, British Pound, Soybeans and Wheat all had Professional activity at the lows, and every one of them came back down first. That jiggery pokery is the market clearing out everybody: in the British Pound and the 10-year notes it took a flush, after the hot CPI number in the 10-years, and then the Big Pro Bars came in anxious to buy and the moves raced away. The tell for the real turn is a second wave of Big Pro Bars with an exhaustion sell, then a break out of the channel. The Emini 15-minute chart has that at 7680; the 13,500 tick bar chart does not yet. That is the whole method: Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 19 October 2026
Monday and Tuesday decide the Emini. If the cyclical supports catch and the 13,500 tick bar chart prints Big Pro Bars or an exhaustion sell on a retest of the lows, the downtrend is done and we have another go at 8000. On the long side, watch the British Pound and 10-years follow through, the Euro through 1.1288, the Aussie Dollar above 69.60, Silver above 60 to 62, Corn above 488 and Bitcoin above 84K. Crude with no Pro sellers at 99 is the inflation risk; Natural Gas stays short.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): We are on Saturday 17 October 2026, just gone 5:15 AM Chicago time. I do hope you are doing well this weekend. It is time for another weekend futures market recap, where I go through fifteen of the largest futures markets and show you what I am seeing on my charts. I hope your trading went well this week. We were expecting a little bit of weakness in the Emini, but I thought it would bounce by midweek or so, and it has not. So the question is, are we going to bounce, or is this it? Are we just heading down and down? I will also talk about being early, because I was definitely early on the forex turns, but it was an interesting week. Before getting into the charts, I do hope I am able to get this video out. We traveled on from Dublin after a couple of days and headed west to do some family genealogy, pretty much as far west as you can go in Ireland. I have probably a five and a half megabit connection, so let us see if it works. This is the Iveragh Peninsula, the Ring of Kerry, just south of the Dingle Peninsula. Both are beautiful, but I actually prefer this one; I think it is more dramatic. We are staying right on the edge of the known world, and if we only had a Starlink connection at a hundred megabits per second I would stay forever.
Family History (01:33): A couple of days ago we went up past the highest mountain in Ireland and came across to see the family gravesite of the Taylors on my grandfather’s side, who were famous republicans, both killed in the War of Independence and then the Irish Civil War. In 1921 Captain Joseph Taylor was killed by the Black and Tans, who were infamously violent. If you have seen the movie Ryan’s Daughter, it is set on the tip of the Dingle Peninsula and the girl falls in love with a captain in the Black and Tans. Then James, or Seamus, Taylor was killed in 1923 in the Irish Civil War. The War of Independence was trying to kick the English out of Ireland. The Civil War was when they could not agree on the treaty, which left Northern Ireland inside the United Kingdom; that is the Liam Neeson movie, Michael Collins. Seamus was against the treaty and was killed by the Irish who supported it, and he is recognized on a famous memorial to the Civil War. But as with everything in Ireland, it is complicated: this photo was taken a few years ago and this one a few days ago, and the memorial has been vandalized. Sad to see. So that is why we are here, and let us hope the internet connection works.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (03:08): Let us get to the Emini, in reverse order, the 13,500 tick bar chart first. The first thing to note is on Better Sine Wave, talking about cycles and trends. Midweek we had another breakdown at 7840. We had a big things happen at triples signal, where we get big bounces or big breaks. That did not hold. We did not have exhaustion sells or blue Professional bars coming in, the level did not hold, and we broke into a downtrend. But it has finished with a nice little pullback to end of trend on the highest timeframe, and we have a confluence of end of trends on the low, the intermediate and the highest timeframes. Cyclically this is a very important level. Let us see if we get confirmation from the Professionals that this will do the trick and end the downtrend. In last weekend’s video I said the higher timeframes looked constructive and we were in an uptrend, but we would have to sit through a little local weakness because we had blue Professional Big Pro Bars into the highs, taking profits and getting short the week prior. The beginnings and ends of the week are marked by the solid vertical yellow lines. We had our Signal Short, a retrace at the end of the week with more blue Professional bars getting short on it, and then we started the week heading down with a nice little retracement signal, almost a stair step trade. That was the stair step trade midweek. The blue Professional bars came on the way up, not on the way down; they were getting in on the retrace, and then we had a sharp move down into another downtrend. There is our squeeze pattern, with support and resistance lines super close together, coinciding with the big things happen at triples signal on Better Sine Wave, and we broke into a downtrend out of that squeeze. We bounced off RAMBO patterns, the Amateurs getting excited at the very end, from RAMBO to RAMBO channel into an exhaustion buy with bearish divergence, blue Professional bars on the retrace, and a stair step trade down. Once we have broken into a downtrend, the first blue Professional bars on the stair step, bang, they get short and we head down again. At the end of the week we have more blue Professional bars, which is good, but they came on the retrace, not at the lows. At least they are interested and we are well down, so that is interesting for finding a bottom. I would like to see more blue Professional bars, Big Pro Bars and blue boxes at those lows, mirroring the activity we had at the highs. We have not had an exhaustion sell down here either. The exhaustion sell got the move going out of the little congestion zone into a downtrend, and they were exhausted on the retrace, but we have not had one at the lows. I like to see those mirroring moves, with exhaustion patterns and with blue Professional bars. Cyclically it is interesting, so I think we could have a little bounce, then a test into these lows, and that is when we get the exhaustion pattern and Big Pro Bars coming in. But we did get blue Professional bars at those lows.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (06:17): As we go up the timeframes, the 15-minute chart looks better. Big Pro Bars come in, an exhaustion sell, blue boxes, so that is nice. It mirrors what we had at the highs, and it is the same level we had a couple of weeks ago. We have tested all the way back down into 7680 and seemingly we are holding. On Better Sine Wave we had a lot of cyclical activity at the highs with the trends all maxing out. We broke into a downtrend, and now we have pullback to end of trend on the low and intermediate timeframes and support on the highest timeframe, so support is coming together there. Let us see if that holds.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (06:59): We see the same thing on the 45-minute. Blue Professional bars at the lows, a test, more blue Professional bars at the lows, a bit of a rally. We did not have blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, but on the retrace the blue Professional bars came in, then they tested exactly the same level, tested again, and Big Pro Bars came in. So the 45-minute chart is looking good.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (07:25): On the 135-minute chart we have a squeeze pattern with blue Professional bars. But we are sitting underneath resistance on the highest timeframe. Cyclical support is due at some point, but we have not had a nice pullback to end of trend. We might get lucky: the intermediate timeframe lines are coming down to hit minus 100 and cross, and that is also happening on the highest timeframe. We have a little overshoot past this support, and we could get caught by support on the intermediate timeframe when these two come together, with support also coming on the highest timeframe. Cyclically that could be nice, but I do not like it sitting underneath these resistances, so the 135-minute is still not there in terms of timing.
Emini Daily Chart (08:20): Lastly, on the daily chart, cyclical support is due on the intermediate timeframe. We will see. On the 13,500 tick bar chart the blue Professional bars did not come with exhaustion, and there are no Big Pro Bars at the lows. So although the 15-minute looks good, the 13,500 tick bar does not quite match up yet. Let us give it Monday to see if all these levels come together, cyclical support catches, and we have another go at 8000. That is what I am seeing on the Emini.
Euro (08:50): Let us talk about being early. Last weekend we were talking about the forex charts, particularly the British Pound, which I liked, and I was wondering whether the forex charts had done enough on the downside. We had some blue Professional bars coming in at the lows, but no Big Pro Bars; the Big Pro Bars happened on the retrace and on the way down. This one I like for holding at 1.1140 on the Euro. We got our signal and RAMBO patterns, so we got a little ahead of ourselves, and we have come back down into Big Pro Bars with an exhaustion sell. Let us see if we get through resistance at 1.1288 and break into an uptrend. What were the Big Pro Bars doing? They were definitely taking profits up here, and they are in down here with an exhaustion sell signal. I would have liked them to come in a little later in the move, but at least the background is red and we have the makings of an uptrend. Last weekend there was not enough going on; this week is interesting for a change in trend in the Euro.
British Pound (09:55): The British Pound is the same thing. I was in a little early with the activity at the end of last weekend, but we had a nice little move down that cleared out everybody, and then the Big Pro Bars got in and raced away. You can see they were anxious to get into the British Pound: an exhaustion buy getting the move going, Big Pro Bars buying it up, and we are away. No blue Professional bars taking profits, and an exhaustion sell on the downside got rid of some profit taking. We are in an uptrend on the British Pound, which I like.
Aussie Dollar (10:24): The Aussie Dollar is also looking better. Last weekend we did not have a lot of blue Professional bars; there were a few, like the Euro chart, but we had to wait for the Big Pro Bars, and here they go. They came in at 69.00 with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, and we got our Signal Long. We have just got Amateur testing at the moment, so we need to get back up through 69.60 to get this really going on the upside.
Japanese Yen (10:56): The Japanese Yen also had Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows this week, and we are just basing at the moment. We have to break back out of this channel to really get it going. Those are the forex charts.
10-Year Notes (11:10): On the 10-years, we had the CPI number, a lot stronger than expected, and the PPI number a lot stronger than people expected, and that caused the selloff in bonds. Bonds sold off because people expect rates to go higher, because inflation is higher and needs to be tamped down. But no, that was the reason to flush everybody out. We got a flush pattern and, just like the British Pound chart, bang, the Big Pro Bars came in anxious to buy it up as it raced away. We have RAMBO patterns at the moment, no blue Professional bars taking profits and the background is red, so all of a sudden we have an uptrend on the 10-years, which is good.
Gold (11:45): Gold also came around. Last weekend we were asking, is this enough? We had our Signal Long, but we came down to test into the 4100s again. Big Pro Bars came in, blue Professional bars, blue boxes at the lows, we got our signal, and we have a little stair step trade happening in Gold, one, two stair step trades with the blue Professional bars on the retrace. Gold is looking interesting for bottoming at 4100.
Silver (12:13): Silver is almost there, with Big Pro Bars. This is what we are looking for. When you see all of these blue Professional bars, that is the setup: an exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue boxes, blue bars, the background in blue, Big Pro Bars. That is when the Professionals are interested. We just need to wait, because they are absorbing any sellers down here, and we will break into an uptrend. Let us see where Silver goes this week, hopefully above 60 to 62 to break out of that channel.
Bitcoin (12:42): Bitcoin has been uninteresting for a while. We had that funny signal, a lot of Big Pro Bars mid sequence, not at the highs and not at the lows. They took profits there and we sold off, took profits again and sold off. Now they are starting to get interested again. I would like to see an exhaustion sell pattern down here. We have a signal and are just testing at the moment. Let us see if we get above 83K and 84K on Bitcoin this week.
Ethereum (13:09): Ethereum took the whole week. I bumped it up to a 13,500 tick bar chart, but maybe we should be one timeframe down. On the 4500 tick bar chart it is a little better: you can see all the blue Professional bars that came in on the retrace, on the way down and now seemingly at the bottom, around 2450. I see a lot of interest in Ethereum down there.
Crude Oil (13:42): Crude next, and I hope this video does not run too long or I will have real problems uploading it. We are up at 99. The Big Pro Bars were in at the lows with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, we tested, and then we just crept up and up and up. We have not had Big Pro Bars at those highs yet, so that is not looking good for the end of the war, with Crude heading up and inflation and so on.
Natural Gas (14:05): But gas is down. They took profits, exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, it rolled over into a Signal Short, and there are no blue Professional bars taking profits down here. We are in a downtrend on Natural Gas.
Corn (14:19): We were talking about the ags last week because they were starting to set up, and here we go. This is Corn. Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows, now testing with an exhaustion sell and more blue Professional bars at those lows. Let us see if we get our Signal Long on Corn this week and break out of this channel above 488 to get the uptrend going.
Soybeans (14:42): Soybeans are the same thing, getting interested here, but it was a little early. We came down and more blue Professional bars came in. That Signal Long was early, so let us see if we get another one on Soybeans this week.
Wheat (15:00): And lastly Wheat, the same thing. We were setting up last weekend: Big Pro Bars came in at the lows and we got a signal. We tested, tested, came back down just below, more exhaustion sells, more Big Pro Bars. They are all setting up for a change in trend.
Wrap-Up (15:14): So, a couple of interesting stories about being early on the Big Pro Bars on the forex charts and the ag charts this week. They definitely tell you what the Professionals are doing, but we often have to sit through some jiggery pokery before the change in trend really gets going and we break out of channels to reverse moves. We should see a good deal of that this week. I hope your trading is going well. Let us see if we have done enough damage on the downside on the Emini and get held by these cyclical patterns. Have we seen enough blue Professional bars? Not sure about that yet. Let us wait for Monday and Tuesday’s activity. Trade well this week.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every Big Pro Bar, blue box, exhaustion signal, flush pattern and RAMBO pattern in this recap comes off CME average trade size data, so you can see where the Professionals are buying and selling instead of guessing. This week it showed the Pros buying the hot CPI flush in the 10-years before the move raced away. Get the same read on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
