This is the 11 October 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, recorded in a hotel room in Dublin. It was a turning point week across a whole bunch of markets: the Professionals stepped in at the lows in the ags, the British Pound and Silver, and sold the retrace in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Emini is the puzzle. Every higher timeframe chart says we break out to 8000 and beyond, but the 13,500 tick bar chart printed Big Pro Bars at the highs and a stair step down trade. Down before up is my best read. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: 8000 is coming, but probably not in a straight line. Watch the pivot low on the tick bar chart and 7720. The daily, 135, 45 and 15-minute charts all show the Professionals buying the dips and not taking profits at the highs around 7860 to 7900. The 13,500 tick bar chart has Big Pro Bars at the highs and blue Professional bars on the retrace, a stair step down setup. Break the local pivot low Sunday into Monday and we test 7720 before the breakout.
- Turning points: long the British Pound, Silver and the ags. The British Pound has bottomed over three weeks with Big Pro Bars and finally an exhaustion sell; break 1.33 and it gets going. Silver and Soybeans printed Signal Longs, and Corn and Wheat have Big Pro Bars back at the lows.
- Bitcoin to 81K. The blue Professional bars came in on the retrace, not at the low, after an exhaustion buy at the 87K highs and a Signal Short. Ethereum has the same pattern with Big Pro Bars taking profits at the highs.
Macro Setup This Week
The US Dollar has been strong for weeks and every forex market has been smashed down, so the first signs of Professional buying in the British Pound, Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen matter: a USD reversal would feed Gold and Silver too. Equities keep ignoring the naysayers who can see problems in the economy going forward. The market is not taking profits at these highs, and the Russell and Dow, which have lagged badly, are on cyclical support. If they join the Nasdaq and the Emini this week, all four indices move in the same direction. Crude remains a news market, battered around by every headline out of the Straits of Hormuz, and the 10-year notes are trying to bottom without the capitulation that usually marks a real low.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: Inches From 8000, Big Pro Bars at the Highs
The Emini is strong on every higher timeframe and weak on the one chart I watch most closely. Daily chart: day session only, we are up at 7860, inches from new territory. If the market were taking profits we would see blue Professional bars, exhaustion patterns or RAMBO patterns at these highs, and we see none of them. The Better Sine Wave bars are red, we are above the blue Professional bars on Better Pro Am and the background is red: uptrend. 135-minute: the last blue Professional bars and blue box came in on the retrace. That is the Professionals buying the dip, not selling the high, after RAMBO patterns at 7900 where the Amateurs got too excited. We now have a triple, quadruple, quintuple top, and the market does not like multiple tops; it tends to spike through them. 45-minute: exhaustion sell, blue bars and blue boxes into the dip, then an exhaustion buy to get the move going. No blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, and a squeeze pattern that could easily rocket out to 8000. 15-minute: the Pros bought last week’s dip with exhaustion sells and blue boxes, we broke to new highs with RAMBO patterns, flushed out the sellers and came back. Now there are Amateur up bars at the highs and a squeeze, with pullback to end of trend on the intermediate and highest timeframes. Squeezes break into trending moves, but a pullback to around 7720 first, to see where the blue Professional bars step in, is possible. 13,500 tick bar: last weekend we had one Big Pro Bar with the background in blue, super high average trade size, Professionals on a higher timeframe getting short. We went higher anyway, and even more Big Pro Bars came in with blue boxes and an exhaustion buy with divergence. The Pros stepped out, we broke the trailing stop, got a Signal Short with no blue Professional bars at the lows, and then blue Professional bars on the retrace: a stair step trade. End-of-week bars skew the average trade size, which is why Better Pro Am switches off the last 25 minutes or so. If Sunday into Monday breaks the local pivot low, we go test the lows. See it on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
NQ - Nasdaq-100 Futures: Record High Into Cyclical Resistance
The Nasdaq printed a record high this week. On Better Sine Wave we put in support on the intermediate timeframe and broke above resistance on the lowest timeframe, and the bars are all red: uptrend. But cyclical resistance is playing out on the intermediate timeframe. We put in pullback to end of trend at the low, and this week’s turn is the second cyclical turn after end of trend. That could mean a small selloff to gather more blue Professional bars before the Nasdaq breaks out properly.
YM - Dow Futures: Cyclical Support, Pros Buying the Lows
The Dow has been a lot weaker than the S&P and the Nasdaq, but Friday printed cyclical support on the intermediate timeframe. The bar has temporarily gone white and could easily turn red again into an uptrend. It was all Amateur down bars into this test, with no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs and blue Professional bars stepping in at the lows. The background has been red recently, so the trend is up.
RTY - Russell 2000 Futures: Cyclical Support After the RAMBO Top
The Russell has also been weak. It topped out with RAMBO patterns at the highs, but cyclical support has come in on the intermediate timeframe and we are coming back above it. If the Russell and the Dow strengthen after significant weakness this week, all four indices move together, and that is the fuel for the Emini break of 8000.
ZC - Corn Futures: Big Pro Bars at the Lows, Reversal Building
We do not often talk about the ags, but they are setting up. Corn had a false signal midweek: Big Pro Bars came in and failed. We came back down to more Big Pro Bars, exhaustion sells and bullish divergence. Corn has not flipped over yet, but it has the makings of a reversal this week.
ZS - Soybean Futures: Exhaustion Sell, Signal Long
Soybeans signalled this week. A small rally after the exhaustion sell had no blue Professional bars taking profits. We came back into the lows on blue Professional down bars, tested the level with another exhaustion sell and Big Pro Bars, and got the rally, the reversal and a Signal Long. Soybeans are looking strong.
ZW - Wheat Futures: Big Pro Bars Back at the Lows
Wheat is the same story. Last time at these lows the Big Pro Bars came in and seemingly got out very quickly, with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence. Now more Big Pro Bars have come in at the lows with an exhaustion sell. The bullish divergence has not triggered yet, but the big Pros are getting interested again.
6E - Euro FX Futures: Pros Testing 1.12
The USD has been strong and every forex market has had big down moves, so are we starting to see a reversal? The Euro is a little early. One set of Big Pro Bars failed and we kept going down, and now more blue Professional bars are coming in at the lows around 1.12. It is not a perfect setup; I would like to see a lot more Big Pro Bars at these lows after a strong move down.
6B - British Pound Futures: Three-Week Bottom, Exhaustion Sell
The Professionals are definitely getting interested in the British Pound. It has been bottoming for three weeks: Big Pro Bars came in, then a lot of back and forth, RAMBO to RAMBO channels. At the end of this week, bang, the exhaustion sell finally came in with Big Pro Bars. It just needs to break above the local highs at 1.33 to get going. Of all the forex charts, this one has far more Professional activity at the bottom.
6A - Australian Dollar Futures: Signal Long, Squeeze Setup
The Aussie Dollar is similar to the Euro, with fewer Big Pro Bars at the lows. I would like to see blue boxes, but there were definitely blue Professional down bars at the lows. We have triggered long with a squeeze pattern, so a nice little run of strength is possible.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Exhaustion Sell at 63.40
The Japanese Yen has been basing for three weeks around 63.40, trying to get a bottom in. Finally we got exhaustion sells at the end of this week, with blue Professional bars at the lows rather than Big Pro Bars. Across the Euro, Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen it is not the classic setup, which is why the British Pound stands out.
GC - Gold Futures: Big Pro Bars, Waiting on 4250
Gold has Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion sell and flush patterns coming in at the lows. We have not triggered into an uptrend yet. The level to watch is 4250: get out of that range and Gold joins the turning point list.
SI - Silver Futures: Blue Boxes at the Lows, Signal Long
Silver triggered this week. Into the lows we got an exhaustion sell and blue boxes, Professionals at new lows. No Big Pro Bars and no background in blue, but that may be enough to reverse this and go the other way for a while. We have a Signal Long, and the precious metals are looking good.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: Pros Sold the Retrace, 81K Target
Bitcoin had an odd pattern two weeks ago: a lot of Big Pro Bar activity mid sequence, not at the lows or the highs. Then we tested the highs at 87K with an exhaustion buy and blue Professional bars, and got a Signal Short. This weekend the blue Professional bars came in on the retrace, not at the low. They were not buying the low, they were selling the retrace. I expect Bitcoin to stair step down and test 81K.
ETH - Ethereum Futures: Big Pro Bars on the Retrace, Signal Short
Ethereum is the cleaner version. Big Pro Bars at the highs taking profits, a Signal Short, and more Big Pro Bars on the retrace rather than at the bottom. When those blue Professional bars are over, Better Pro Am trails the stop down, and we would expect this to go from exhaustion buy to exhaustion sell.
CL - Crude Oil Futures: 88 Holds, 93 to Break
Crude is a mess. It has been driven by news for weeks and months, and every good or bad headline out of the Straits of Hormuz batters it around. The easiest read is where the Big Pro Bars were last: in at 88 with the background in blue, an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence. A little strength went nowhere, we came back to test with a lot of stops run, 88 held and we are rallying. Get above 92.50 to 93 in the first hours of trade Sunday into Monday and Crude turns up.
ZN - 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: No Capitulation Yet
The 10-year notes are just as junky, signals back and forth as they try to bottom. The Big Pro Bars came in on the retrace and we went down, then on the way down into these lows, but with no exhaustion sell: we have not cleared everybody out with capitulation, on this chart or the higher timeframes. Relief rallies keep failing, blue box to blue box. A retrace rally this week, then the capitulation move to new lows, is my guess.
Pattern of the Week: Where the Big Pro Bars Print
This week split cleanly on one question: did the Big Pro Bars print at the low, or on the retrace? In Soybeans, Silver, the British Pound and Corn they printed into the lows with exhaustion sells, and those are the reversals. In Bitcoin and Ethereum they printed on the retrace after a Signal Short, which is the Professionals selling the bounce, not buying the bottom, and those are stair step trades down. The Emini 13,500 tick bar chart has the second pattern while its higher timeframes have the first, which is why the read is down before up. That is the whole method: Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 12 October 2026
Sunday into Monday decides the Emini: a break of the local pivot low on the tick bar chart sends us to test 7720 and the lows, and that is where I want to see the blue Professional bars step in before the run at 8000. Watch for the Russell and Dow to join in. On the long side, the British Pound above 1.33, Silver and Soybeans following through, and Corn and Wheat catching. On the short side, Bitcoin towards 81K. Crude above 93 turns it up.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): We are on Sunday 11 October 2026, just gone 4:27 AM Chicago time. I do hope you are doing well. This weekend, time for another weekend futures market recap: we will go through fifteen of the largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts. I am actually recording this in a hotel room in Dublin, just here for a couple of days, then we are off to the West Coast to do some family history. First thing to say is a huge thank you for all of the comments and well wishes on last weekend’s video, where we celebrated the twentieth anniversary of emini-watch.com. Dozens and dozens of incredibly kind comments, about 66 on the video, so thank you. As promised, we are doing a giveaway: anybody who commented “coaching” on that video was in the draw for one free coaching session. Let me do it live. And the winner is Chuck Kramer. That is brilliant. Chuck is a long-term follower of the channel and the website. I will be in touch, or just message me directly, and we will get the coaching session organized. It is nice to see a familiar name drawn. Congratulations.
Turning Point Week (01:45): What an important week in the markets. A significant turning point is happening in a whole bunch of markets. The ags are looking interesting, the forex markets are looking interesting. On equities, I am going to repeat what I said last weekend: on the longer timeframe charts they are all pointing up, and we are going to break out of this up to 8000 plus on the Emini. I am pretty convinced of that. However, on the short-term chart, the 13,500 tick bar chart, we put in some serious resistance this week, blue Professional bars and Big Pro Bars at the highs, and we have a stair step down trade. I do not know how this resolves, but I will show you the higher timeframe charts for the Emini and the Nasdaq, Dow and Russell daily charts, and you make of it what you like. Sometimes we have Professionals buying at the highs in what I call a gathering pattern: they are waiting for the jump. But we had weakness after that, and you usually do not get much weakness after a gathering pattern. So it is going to break higher, but we may have a nasty little breakdown before that happens.
Emini Daily Chart (02:54): Daily chart, day session only, of the Emini. We are up at 7860. The market is so strong, we are inches away from breaking into new territory, despite the naysayers and people who can see problems in the economy going forward. Sure, maybe. But the market is not taking profits at these highs. On these higher timeframe charts we would be seeing blue Professional bars, exhaustion patterns and RAMBO patterns if that were coming. The bars are red on Better Sine Wave, so we are in an uptrend. We are above the blue Professional bars on Better Pro Am on the daily chart, and the background is red: uptrend.
Nasdaq Daily Chart (03:32): The Nasdaq had a record high this week. On Better Sine Wave we put in support on the intermediate timeframe and broke above resistance on the lowest timeframe. The bars are all red, so we are in an uptrend, but we do have cyclical resistance on the intermediate timeframe playing out. We put in pullback to end of trend at the low on the intermediate timeframe, and this is the second cyclical turn after end of trend when it goes off this week. So cyclically there is some resistance on the Nasdaq, and we could sell off a little to gather more blue Professional bars and then break properly out of this.
Dow Daily Chart (04:24): On the flip side, the Dow, which has been a lot weaker than the S&P and the Nasdaq, printed cyclical support on the intermediate timeframe on Friday. That bar has temporarily gone white, but it could easily turn red again into an uptrend. It was all Amateur down bars into this test. We did not have blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, and we have blue Professional bars stepping in at the lows. The background has been red recently, so we are in an uptrend, and this has cyclical support on the intermediate timeframe.
Russell Daily Chart (05:02): The Russell has also been pretty weak. It topped out with RAMBO patterns at the highs, but cyclical support has come in on the intermediate timeframe and we are coming back above it. As I read it, all of these daily charts are showing strength; it is just a question of how we break to new highs. If the Russell and the Dow, which have been a lot weaker than the Nasdaq and the Emini, join in this week, all of a sudden all four indices are moving in the same direction. If these cyclical supports catch and play out, the Russell and the Dow strengthen after significant weakness, and we keep adding to the Nasdaq and the Emini as they break to new highs. We are inches away from that, and 8000 on the Emini will be a psychologically important number.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (05:58): Down to the 135-minute chart. The last time we had blue Professional bars and a little blue box was on the retrace. That is Professionals buying the dip, not selling the high. That played off the RAMBO patterns at the high, where the Amateurs got too excited at 7900. We sold off, the Professionals stepped in, and we now have a triple, quadruple, quintuple top. The market does not like that; it tends to spike through. We are staying above resistance on the highest timeframe, the bars are red and the background is red, so we are in an uptrend, and the last time the Professionals were active was on the dip. They were not taking profits up here.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (06:41): The 45-minute is the same type of thing. Background in blue, exhaustion sell, blue bars down into the dip, blue boxes, which means Professionals at the lows getting ready for the move higher, then an exhaustion buy getting the move going. Background red, bars red, uptrend. No Amateur bars at the highs, no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. We have more squeeze patterns, and you could easily see this rocketing out of here up to 8000.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (07:12): The detail is on the 15-minute chart, where the beginnings and ends of the weeks are marked by solid yellow vertical lines. Last week’s dip had exhaustion sells, blue Professional bars, blue boxes, everything going on. They bought the dip, the market got going and we broke to new highs with RAMBO patterns. A little weakness, flushing out the sellers, and we came back. Now we have Amateur up bars at the highs and a squeeze pattern, showing the support and resistance lines are super close together. Into this resistance we put in pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe and on the highest timeframe, and we are squeezing with the Amateur bars. We come out of squeeze patterns into trending patterns, because being super compressed between support and resistance means we break into trending moves. So it is possible we find resistance here with the Amateur bars and get some weakness back to around 7720, test into there and see where the blue Professional bars step in on the 15-minute chart before another go at new highs. But on all of these higher timeframe charts, the Professionals are in on the dips. They are not getting out at the highs.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (08:30): However, the 13,500 tick bar chart. Last weekend we saw these blue Professional bars and said that is not great, but it was only one Big Pro Bar. The background is blue, which means super high average trade size: Professionals on a higher timeframe getting short. We had blue bars, blue boxes and an exhaustion buy, and said we could see if that rolls over. We had a Signal Short, but then we went even higher, and even more Big Pro Bars came in with the background in blue: blue Professional up bars, blue boxes, exhaustion buy, bearish divergence. The Professionals step in and step out, and here they were stepping out. We got another break of the trailing stop behind those blue Professional bars and our signal, with no blue Professional bars at the lows, and on the retrace a blue Professional bar: a stair step trade. Having had Big Pro Bars showing they were getting out, the next opportunity on a retrace back into those highs, the Professionals stepped in again and got short. But this needs to trade down, back to test the lows, for it to work out, and the bars at the end of the week were a little strong. Sometimes at the end of the week there is a lot of Professional activity. On Better Pro Am we switch off the last 25 minutes or so of trade when calculating the average trade size, because the end of the day on the Emini is heavily skewed towards blue Professional bars taking and exiting positions, and it skews the analysis. Let us see if Sunday into Monday continues down through this little local low, which would mean we go test into those lows. That is the setup on the lower timeframe chart, short below this pivot low. But on the higher timeframe charts they are itching to break out to new highs. That is my best read on the Emini and the indices.
Corn (10:43): Let us look at the ags first. We do not normally talk about them much, but they are setting up this week. Corn had a false signal midweek: Big Pro Bars came in, that one failed, and we came back down to more Big Pro Bars, exhaustion sells and bullish divergence. Corn has not flipped over yet, but we have the makings of a reversal this week.
Soybeans (11:08): Soybeans also signalled this week. Same type of deal: a little rally after the exhaustion sell, but no blue Professional bars taking profits. We came back into these lows on blue Professional down bars, tested the level, exhaustion sell, Big Pro Bars, and got the rally, the reversal and a Signal Long. Soybeans looking strong as well.
Wheat (11:36): Wheat, same thing. Last time around at these lows the Big Pro Bars came in but seemingly got out very quickly, with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence. Now more Big Pro Bars into these lows and an exhaustion sell; the bullish divergence has not triggered yet, but the ags are looking interesting. At those lows the big Pros are getting interested again, so let us see where the ags go this week.
Euro (12:00): We have also had a lot of weakness in all of the forex markets. The USD has been strong and we have had big down moves. Are we starting to see a reversal? The Euro is maybe a little early. We had Big Pro Bars, that one failed and we kept going down, and now more blue Professional bars are coming in at the lows. It is not perfect for a setup. I would like to see a lot more Big Pro Bars at those lows, at 1.12, after moving down quite strongly. Are they going to get interested?
British Pound (12:37): They are definitely starting to get interested in the British Pound; long British Pound at the moment. This has been bottoming over three weeks. Big Pro Bars came in, then it just moved backwards and forwards, a lot of jiggery pokery, RAMBO to RAMBO channels. Now at the end of this week, bang, the exhaustion sell finally comes in, Big Pro Bars come in, and we just need to break above these little local highs at 1.33 to get this going into the highs. It has been smashed down.
Aussie Dollar (13:07): The Aussie Dollar is similar to the Euro chart, fewer Big Pro Bars at the lows. We have some going on. I like to see the blue boxes myself, but we definitely had blue Professional down bars at those lows. We have triggered long and we have a squeeze pattern, so we could have a nice little run of strength in those forex charts.
Japanese Yen (13:28): The Japanese Yen is a similar type of thing. We have been basing over three weeks around 63.40, trying to get this bottom in, and finally we got exhaustion sells at the end of this week. Not Big Pro Bars, just blue Professional bars at those lows. So it is not classic across the Euro, Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen. I would like to see far more Big Pro Bars, but interestingly there has been far more activity in the British Pound bottoming.
Gold (14:01): Also gold and silver this week, the precious metals. They were doing well, and we have Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion sell and flushes coming in. We have not triggered into an uptrend yet on Gold. Let us see if we can get out of the 4250 range.
Silver (14:22): Silver triggered this week. Into those lows we had an exhaustion sell and blue boxes, which is Professionals at new lows. No Big Pro Bars and no background in blue on Silver, but that might be enough to reverse this and go the other way for a bit. We got a signal on Silver, so the precious metals are looking good.
Bitcoin (14:40): However, Bitcoin and Ethereum, not so much. There was an odd pattern two weeks ago on Bitcoin: a lot of Big Pro Bar activity, but not at the lows and not at the highs, it was mid sequence. Then we tested the highs at 87K, got an exhaustion buy and blue Professional bars, got our Signal Short, and we are about to stair step down. This weekend’s activity is blue Professional bars on the retrace, not at the low. They were not buying that low, they were selling the retrace. So I expect Bitcoin to go test 81K.
Ethereum (15:23): A similar type of thing on Ethereum, and it is a little bit better. We had Big Pro Bars at the highs taking profits, there is our signal, and more Big Pro Bars on the retrace, not at the bottom. So we would expect this to trail down on Better Pro Am when these blue Professional bars are over. That will trail the stop down, and we would expect this to go from exhaustion buy to exhaustion sell. Gold and Silver looking strong, Ethereum and Bitcoin not so much.
Crude Oil (15:56): The last two are the big macro ones, the 10-years and Crude. I wish I had a better read, but look at Crude. It is an absolute mess. It has been so driven by news over the last weeks and months: as soon as some good news or bad news comes out of Hormuz, Crude gets battered around. What I look at is the last time the Big Pro Bars were in, with the background in blue. They were in at 88: exhaustion sell, bullish divergence. We had a little strength that did not go anywhere, came back to test with a lot of stops being run down here, and 88 held, so we are rallying from there. Let us see if we get above 92.50 to 93 on Crude in the first hours of trade Sunday into Monday to get into an uptrend. But it is pretty junky.
10-Year Notes (16:47): The same goes for the 10-years. It is trying to bottom, but there are signals backwards and forwards. The easiest way to get clarity is to look at where the Big Pro Bars are happening. Here they came in on the retrace and we went down; here they came in on the way down into these lows. No exhaustion sell at that point, so we have not cleared everybody out with capitulation, and on the higher timeframe charts we have not quite seen capitulation in the 10-years and bonds on the way down either. We are definitely trying to hold down here, with a little relief rally that is not going anywhere. We keep taking profits blue box to blue box. It does not have the energy yet to break into a proper trend move, and I am wondering if we get a retrace rally this week before the capitulation move to new lows.
Wrap-Up (17:51): So, a lot of turning points this week across all of these markets. We could see Gold, Silver and forex trending higher, and the ags, Corn, Soybeans and Wheat, starting to catch this week. Equities, I do not know: are we going to go down before we go up? Let us see. As I have said repeatedly, it looks strong on the higher timeframe charts. I hope everybody’s trading is going well. Good luck this week. We are heading west in Ireland to the coast, staying in a coast guard cottage right on the water, miles from anywhere, but they promised the internet connection is good. They had better be right. Trade well.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every Big Pro Bar, blue box, exhaustion signal, squeeze and RAMBO pattern in this recap comes off CME average trade size data, so you can see where the Professionals are buying and selling instead of guessing. This week that one question, at the low or on the retrace, sorted 15 markets into longs and shorts. Get the same read on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
