The Emini got saved at 7300 this week. Fed day Wednesday looked ugly, then earnings turned everything around and the market rallied into Friday – but one thing was missing at the lows, and it is the big unknown heading into next week. This is the 2 August 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, covering Professional and Amateur activity across 15 of the largest futures markets.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: long-term uptrend intact, 7600 is the target. Either a gap and go through 7600, or one more dip toward 7400 first so the Big Pro Bars can finally print at the lows of the 13,500 tick chart.
- Crude: bias higher. Pros reloaded at $78 while Amateurs went short at $82 and got trapped. A very strong Pro bar printed in Friday’s closing hours – watch Monday-Tuesday for follow-through.
- Ethereum: topped at 2000, Signal Short active. Watch for a break of 1800 on the way down.
Macro Setup This Week
The Fed held rates on Wednesday and the market initially sold off, with talk now shifting to a potential September move. Then earnings kicked in – Microsoft’s strong numbers Wednesday into Thursday flipped the tone, and equities rallied into Thursday and Friday with daily-chart support holding. The Microsoft chart itself was a nice demo that the Better Indicators work on any liquid market: Rambo patterns (Amateur-led moves) into the 550 top, then Big Pro Bars and bullish divergence at the lows before the earnings rally. Elsewhere, a suspected central bank intervention drove a huge move in the Japanese Yen, and news out of the new UK prime minister kept the British Pound bid.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: Saved at 7300, But No Big Pro Bars at the Lows
The Emini is in a long-term uptrend and got saved at 7300 this week, with 7600 the level to beat. Daily chart: price dropped through support on the lowest time frame and rallied before the intermediate cyclical cross came in, so double supports arrive a little late – the path points to a test of 7600 and beyond over the next week or two. 135-minute: blue Professional bars and Amateur bars marked the 7600 highs, Pros held the pullback, and cyclical support is due – a break back up through 7600 looks likely. 45-minute: blue Professional bars at the lows, a test, more Pro buying and an exhaustion buy got the move going, with room to run from support to resistance. 15-minute: the market had to come all the way back to the 7300s before the Big Pro Bars printed, then broke the trailing stop for a Signal Long. 13,500 tick bar: the one warning on the Better Trading Indicators charts – Big Pro Bars showed on the retrace and at last week’s highs, but NOT at the Fed day lows. Either we gap and go through 7600, or we get one more push down toward 7400 where the Big Pro Bars can finally get set at decent prices.
6E – Euro Futures: Profit Taking at 1.155
The Euro had a good week. Professional bars (not Big Pro Bars) came in at last week’s lows, price broke into an uptrend and gapped up on Sunday night into the highs. Up at 1.155 there was an exhaustion buy with Big Pro Bars – Professional profit taking. Watch for some weakening in the Euro this week.
6B – British Pound Futures: Signal Long With Room to Run
The British Pound printed blue Professional bars into the lows – no Big Pro Bars there, they came on the retrace – followed by an exhaustion buy and a burst of activity, some of it likely driven by announcements from the new UK prime minister. A Signal Long fired just above 1.30 and the market rallied. No blue Professional bars are taking profits at the highs yet – they are active on the retrace with bullish divergence – so the Pound still has a ways to run before this turns.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Bouncing Ball Trade, Uptrend Intact
The Aussie Dollar saw Big Pro Bars at the lows and heavy activity on the retrace before a sell-off, with the exhaustion sell coming after the break – a bouncing ball trade. Price rallied from there. It is weakening at the moment, but no blue Professional bars have taken profits at the highs, so technically this is still an uptrend.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Pros Front-Ran the Intervention
The Japanese Yen had a huge move up this week – possibly central bank intervention – and the Professionals anticipated it. Big Pro Bars hammered in at last week’s lows, exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, Signal Long, and the market ran hard for the upside. Some profit taking into Friday’s close, but that was a lovely signal.
ZN – 10-Year Notes Futures: Reversal Watch
Interesting setup in the 10-Year Notes with the Fed on hold and September rate-move talk building. Blue Professional bars sold the highs with an exhaustion signal and bearish divergence, and price dropped off. At the end of this week the Big Pro Bars got super active with an exhaustion sell – but on the retrace, not on the move down, which is not the preferred structure. Price weakened after hours Friday. The trailing stop needs to trail down; watch for a reversal signal this week.
GC – Gold Futures: Winding Up at 4050, No Breakout
Gold is just not playing ball. Big Pro Bars came in four or five weeks ago at 4050, the Amateur-led breakout attempts went nowhere, and price keeps pushing up into Amateur moves with no follow-through. This week brought more Big Pro Bars at the lows with a signal, but it weakened and came back down again. Gold is winding up for something – it just is not breaking to the upside yet. It may take an even deeper flush before more Big Pro Bars step in.
SI – Silver Futures: Stuck Below 62
Same story in Silver for a number of weeks now: testing the 56-57.50 level, with Big Pro Bars active three or four weeks ago but no break above 62. Like Gold, it may have to go deeper before the next wave of Professional buying shows up.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Shorts From 65K, No Exhaustion Yet
Bitcoin had a nice rally up to $66K, then a series of Signal Shorts with Big Pro Bars selling it down from $65K on the retrace. Now at $62K there is no exhaustion sell and no bullish divergence yet, despite triple supports building. The Pros need to show up at the lows before this is buyable – not ready yet.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Topped at 2000
Ethereum has definitely topped out at 2000. Blue Professional bars sold into those highs and a Signal Short is active. Watch for a break through 1800 on the way down.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Pros Reloaded $78, Amateurs Trapped at $82
Crude was the story of the last several weeks – including the move originally misread at $78. Blue Professional bars bought the news breakout at $78 and rode a huge rally to the $94s, took profits at the highs, and the Signal Short ran it all the way back to $78. There the Big Pro Bars bought it up again with a Signal Long and no Professional profit taking – while the Amateurs went short at $82 and got it wrong (Rambo patterns, a reversal of an Amateur breakout). Price rallied, and a very strong Pro bar printed in Friday’s closing hours. One caveat: an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence pattern is in place and the trailing stop has not broken yet, so watch Monday-Tuesday for confirmation.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Signal Long at $2.70
Natural Gas printed Big Pro Bars at the lows around $2.70, fired a Signal Long, tested down with Amateur down bars into the move, and has kept rallying to $2.80. Natural Gas is in an uptrend.
HG – Copper Futures: Signal Short at 650
Copper came into the highs at 650 last week with an exhaustion signal, bearish divergence and Big Pro Bars, then a Signal Short. Price bounced off Rambo patterns and is now testing back into that level. Watch for blue Professional bars to trail up the stop and break the market back down into a downtrend.
ZC / ZS – Corn and Soybeans Futures: Downtrend vs Rally Attempt
Not much going on in the ags. Corn remains in a downtrend, while Soybeans are trying to rally at the lows – but with no Big Pro Bars yet to back the move.
ZW – Wheat Futures: Still in a Downtrend
Wheat topped with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence and came back down. Blue Professional bars are only showing on the retrace, not at the lows, so Wheat is still in a downtrend.
Pattern of the Week: Reversal of an Amateur Breakout in Crude
The Crude trade at $78-$82 is the textbook version of why this channel exists. The Big Pro Bars bought $78 with no Professional profit taking above – and at the exact same time, the Amateurs broke short at $82 into Rambo patterns. That is a reversal of an Amateur breakout: the crowd commits in one direction while the average trade size says the big money is loading the other way. The market rallied and the shorts were trapped. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs – it is the whole game in one chart.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 3 August 2026
The big unknown is the 13,500 tick bar chart on the Emini: does the market simply gap and go through 7600, or does it sell off first so the Big Pro Bars can finally print at the lows near 7400 before a proper run at 7600 and beyond? Also on watch: a Crude trailing-stop break for continuation, a possible reversal signal in the 10-Year Notes, and whether the Euro’s Professional profit taking at 1.155 turns into real weakness.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): It is Saturday, 1 August 2026, just gone 9:54 PM Chicago time. It is the weekend, so time for another weekend futures market recap – going through 15 of the largest futures markets and showing you what I am seeing on my charts. Apologies there was no video last Sunday: I was in the middle of putting together the Wednesday deep-dive into futures versus options versus leveraged ETFs. Thank you for all the kind comments on that video – a bit dry, a lot of data, but interesting to see futures and options come out very close together in terms of returns. This weekend: the market got saved at 7300. Fed day Wednesday looked bad, then earnings announcements came out and everything looked better. Markets rallied into Thursday and Friday, and the support on the daily chart has held.
Microsoft (01:13): One of the strong numbers Wednesday into Thursday was Microsoft, and the chart shows the Better Indicators work on all liquid markets. On the Microsoft daily and 130-minute charts (there are three 130-minute bars in a stock day session, versus the 135-minute chart on the futures), Better Sine Wave shows the top being made at 550 with a pullback to end of trend running into resistance on the highest time frame, a sign of weakness, and a drop into a downtrend. The bottom formed with a pullback to end of trend on the lowest time frame, then the intermediate time frame, all happening underneath support on the highest time frame. Then a sign of strength and the market rallied. Why? Professional and Amateur activity: Rambo patterns into the highs – the move up was led by the Amateurs and ran out of puff – then the Professionals stepped in on the way down, with Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion signal and bullish divergence at the lows. The market held, and bang – a nice rally, indicative of what happened across the tech sector Wednesday through Friday.
Emini Daily Chart (02:53): On the daily chart I was hoping we would find cyclical support on the next highest time frame. We dropped through support on the lowest time frame; I thought it would be caught by support on the intermediate time frame. The cross was due, but the market rallied before it came in, so it arrives a little late – then we get double supports coming in and a test into 7600 and beyond, I imagine in the next week or two.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (03:22): There was the testing – all the blue Professional bars and the Amateur bars at those 7600 highs, once and twice. We dropped off, were held by Professionals coming in, and cyclical support is due. So we should bust back up through 7600, I would imagine – although all is not clear on the 13,500 tick bar chart, so this is looking good on the higher time frames but we could have a little dip first.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (03:50): Blue Professional bars coming in at the lows, a test into the lows, more blue Professional bars, and an exhaustion buy almost getting the move going. We are breaking up with cyclical support – room to run from support to resistance on the highest time frame of the 45-minute chart.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (04:16): With the vertical yellow lines marking the beginnings and ends of weeks: last week a few Professionals came in holding at that level, but no – we needed to come right back down to the 7300s, and then the Big Pro Bars came in. Then we broke through the trailing stop, got our Signal Long, and seemingly we are off.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (04:50): The thing that surprised me: we did not get Big Pro Bars right at those lows. Last week’s activity into the highs had Big Pro Bars and bearish divergence – we fell out of bed and dropped. At the beginning of this week the Big Pro Bars came in on the retrace, not on the way down and not at the lows – Signal Short, and the market dropped. But right down at the Fed day lows on Wednesday, no Big Pro Bars at all. It took the overnight session the next morning before Professional bars showed. I would have liked to see Big Pro Bars at that test, either at the lows or on the retrace, but that was not the case. There was a little profit taking into Friday’s close. Let us see if we need another push down to catch the cyclical low on the intermediate time frame on the daily, giving the Big Pro Bars an opportunity to get set at decent prices as we test into 7400 – or whether it just gaps and goes on Sunday. Either way, the Emini is in a long-term uptrend and we are looking back up at 7600. The question is whether we dip first.
Euro (06:19): The forex markets had quite a good week. On the Euro, the end of last week had Professional bars at the lows – not Big Pro Bars, but Professionals – with flush patterns, then a break into an uptrend. A signal with a gap up on Sunday night into the highs, then profit taking: an exhaustion buy with Big Pro Bars up at 1.155. Let us see if the Euro weakens this week.
British Pound (06:53): Into the lows, blue Professional bars – again, no Big Pro Bars there; they came on the retrace – then an exhaustion buy and a lot of activity. I imagine some of that is driven by announcements from the new UK prime minister. A Signal Long just above 1.30, and we rallied. No blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs – they are active on the retrace with bullish divergence – so the Pound still has a ways to run before it turns.
Aussie Dollar (07:31): Big Pro Bars came in at the lows, with a lot of activity on this week’s retrace, then a sell-off. The exhaustion sell came after the break – what I call a bouncing ball trade – and we rallied from there. It is weakening at the moment, but no blue Professional bars have taken profits at the highs, so technically the Aussie Dollar is still in an uptrend.
Japanese Yen (07:56): A huge move up this week – was it central bank intervention? Either way, it was anticipated by the Professionals. Into last week’s lows: Big Pro Bars, bang bang bang, exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, Signal Long, and the market ran for an upside move. Some profit taking into Friday’s close, but that was a lovely signal on the Japanese Yen.
10-Year Notes (08:22): Interesting. The Fed did not move rates this week, with a lot of talk of a potential September move. Up at the highs, blue Professional bars sold it down with an exhaustion signal and bearish divergence, and we dropped off. Now a similar move: super active at the end of the week, Big Pro Bars, exhaustion sell at that point, and weakness after hours on Friday. The trailing stop needs to trail down after the blue Professional bars. This is happening on the retrace, which I do not particularly like – I would have preferred the blue Professional bars on the moves down. Let us see if we get a reversal signal on the 10-Years this week.
Gold (09:12): Gold and Silver are just not playing ball. I have been waiting for this to catch and rally, but it has not happened. Big Pro Bars came in four or five weeks ago at 4050, we tried to break away led by the Amateurs, and it got nowhere – just pushing up into Amateur moves with nothing happening. This week: some more Big Pro Bars at the lows with a signal, but it weakened and came back down. Gold is winding up for something, but it is not breaking to the upside yet.
Silver (09:49): A similar thing on Silver – the same pattern for a number of weeks, testing into the 56-57.50 level. Big Pro Bars were active three or four weeks ago, but we never got the break above 62. We may have to go even deeper before more Big Pro Bars come in on Gold and Silver.
Bitcoin (10:13): Bitcoin had a nice rally up to $66K, but then a series of short signals – Big Pro Bars selling it down, getting short on the retrace at $65K. Here at $62K there is no exhaustion sell at that point, and no bullish divergence yet, despite all kinds of triple supports. We need similar activity picking up at the lows before Bitcoin is ready. It is not ready yet.
Ethereum (11:04): Ethereum has definitely topped out at 2000. Blue Professional bars into those highs, Signal Short at the moment. Let us see if we break through 1800 on the way down.
Crude (11:20): The Crude chart over the last several weeks – this is the move I got wrong at $78. Blue Professional bars bought the news breakout and it went for a huge rally up to the $94s. Then the Professionals took profits at the highs, Signal Short, and it ran all the way back to $78. At $78 the Big Pro Bars came in and bought it up – Signal Long, no blue Professional bars taking profits – and the Amateurs got it wrong, going short at $82 into Rambo patterns: a potential reversal of an Amateur breakout. We rallied from there, and at the end of the week the Big Pro Bars came in with a very, very strong bar in the closing hours of Crude. Just bear in mind there is an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence pattern here, and we have not broken through the trailing stop – a little strange – so let us see if the rally continues with Monday and Tuesday’s activity.
Natural Gas (12:23): Same thing – Big Pro Bars came in at the lows down at $2.70, we got our Signal Long, tested down with the Amateur down bars into that move, and have kept rallying to $2.80. Natural Gas is in an uptrend.
Copper (12:39): Copper is just testing at the moment. Last week we came into the highs at 650: exhaustion signal, bearish divergence, Big Pro Bars, Signal Short, then a bounce off Rambo patterns coming back into that level. We need to see blue Professional bars trail up the stop and break back down into a downtrend.
Corn and Soybeans (12:59): Not sure there is anything going on in the ags – a downtrend on Corn, and Soybeans trying to rally at the lows down here, with no Big Pro Bars yet.
Wheat (13:14): Wheat topped with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence, came back down, and the blue Professional bars are on the retrace – none at the lows. Wheat is still in a downtrend.
Wrap-Up (13:27): For me the big unknown is the 13,500 tick bar chart and where we see Professional activity next. Do we just gap and go through 7600 and get this thing going, or do we have a sell-off during next week’s activity, with Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows, before a proper go at 7600 and beyond? Hope that was helpful, and good luck with your trading next week.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every call in this recap comes straight off the Better Trading Indicators: Better Pro Am for the Professional vs Amateur activity, Better Momentum for the exhaustion signals and divergences, and Better Sine Wave for the cyclical supports and resistances. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
