Two or three weeks ago only one chart showed Big Pro Bars. This week they are popping up everywhere – 8 of the 15 futures markets saw large Professional activity despite the summer doldrums. This is the 5 July 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, covering the Emini, metals, crypto, energy, grains, forex and rates going into the week of 6 July 2026.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: 7310 trailing support held and the market has rallied since Monday. A break above 7600 resistance opens a run at new highs, helped by the bullish 4th of July seasonal pattern.
- Crude Oil: first Big Pro Bar buying at 67.50-68 since the slide from 102 began in early May. Watch for a bottom forming at these levels.
- Forex rallies (Euro 1.15, British Pound, Aussie Dollar, Japanese Yen) have no Big Pro Bars behind them – Amateur-led counter trend moves likely to resolve to the downside.
Macro Setup This Week
A shortened week with US markets closed Friday for the 4th of July – and the 250th anniversary at that. Holidays are normally bullish periods and the 4th of July seasonal pattern is lining up behind the Emini strength (the seasonality indicator on emini-watch.com maps these periods onto Google Calendar). The bigger picture: the “summer of risk” thesis from a few weeks back still looks on track. The US Dollar is weakening, precious metals and crypto are rallying together, and the professionals are busy across an unusually broad set of markets for early July.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: 7310 Holds, 7600 in Play
The Emini held its key trailing support at 7310 on Monday and has rallied ever since, with 7600 the psychological resistance overhead. Daily chart: 7310 trailing support on Better Pro Am held, no blue Professional up bars taking profits, no Amateur up bars leading the move, momentum neutral – looking good. 135-minute: the retracement into the blue Professional bars held, a squeeze pattern on Better Sine Wave broke out into a trend, and the exhaustion buy looks like it is starting this move, not ending it. Better Momentum is neutral at -16,000. 15-minute: Big Pro Bars held the low and the squeeze breakout is trending, but the push under 7600 was Amateur-led and ran out of puff – the -18,000 momentum read is well short of the 25,000 needed for an exhaustion sell, so the move is not over. Blue Professional bars need to step in Monday or Tuesday. 13,500 tick bar: the surprise of the week. Exhaustion sell, bullish divergence and Big Pro Bars at 7440 started a 120-130 point rally to 7560-7570, then Professional profit-taking and a false breakout at 7600 produced a Rambo to Rambo channel. Cyclical support on the highest timeframe is still to come, but the higher timeframes say uptrend. These signals all come from the Better Trading Indicators.
GC – Gold Futures: Big Pro Bars Buy the 3980 Test
The Gold long setup flagged last weekend played out. Big Pro Bars came in at the end of last week with an exhaustion sell and a signal, the market tested down to 3980 this week and Big Pro Bars came in again, with Amateur down bars and flush patterns clearing out the last of the sellers. Gold is now up at 4200 – the Pros sold it down, picked it back up at 4000, and there are no blue Professional bars taking profits yet. Uptrend intact.
SI – Silver Futures: 58 Holds, Uptrend Confirmed
Silver finally got its Big Pro Bars. A couple of weekends ago there were none at the 56.5 lows – just blue Professional bars – but this week they arrived on the retrace. The 58 level held and Silver has broken into an uptrend. With Big Pro Bars now behind both Gold and Silver, the precious metals rally has real Professional conviction behind it. That is strong.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Breakout Above 60K
Bitcoin has been building this move for weeks. Big Pro Bars came in at the $60K lows a few weeks ago, then again at $59K, forming a double bottom with squeeze patterns and Rambo patterns at the lows. Professional bars then got behind the breakout above $60K and the move is on its way – Bitcoin is up at $63K with no Professional profit-taking at the highs yet, just a little weakening at the moment.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: 1800 With Amateurs Leading
Ethereum is following the same script. Big Pro Bars came in at 1500-1550 four to five weeks ago, the market raced away with no Professional profit-taking at the highs, retested the level through squeeze patterns and has broken out into an uptrend up to 1800. The move is currently Amateur-led with Rambo patterns forming over the weekend, so it could soften – look for the next dip where Professional bars step in for continuation.
ZN – 10-Year Notes: Signal Short, Potential U-Turn
The 10-Year Notes put in the reversal flagged last weekend. Big Pro Bars took profits into the highs with an exhaustion buy, the Signal Short triggered at the beginning of this week and the market sold off. Big Pro Bars have now come in at the lows without much downside progress, so watch whether that level holds this week or gives way – this could develop into a fairly big U-Turn, with Pros taking profits on the way up and getting the move going on the way down.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: First Pro Buying at 67.50
Crude has been in a big downtrend since the Big Pro Bars at 102 in early May – but this week a Big Pro Bar appeared at 67.50 at the lows, with a Rambo pattern right at the bottom wrong-footing the late sellers and an exhaustion buy flushing out the last patterns at 68. This is the first level where the professionals have shown real interest since the top. The read: look for matching patterns – Big Pro Bars at the highs followed by Big Pro Bars at the lows – as a sign the downtrend may be finding its floor.
HG – Copper Futures: Big Pro Bars at $6
Copper triggered its signal last weekend with Big Pro Bars at the $6 lows and showed some strength this week. Background is red so the trend is up, Amateur down bars are testing into the lows and there are no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. It has not really got going yet, but the setup is intact – watch for Copper to continue the rally this week.
ZS – Soybeans Futures: Signal Long at 1128
Soybeans triggered this week. Big Pro Bars came in at 1128 with exhaustion sells, and the Signal Long fired. There is some blue Professional profit-taking at the highs, but the background is red, so Soybeans should be in an uptrend from here. One of two grain longs triggered this week.
ZC – Corn Futures: Uptrend From 408
Corn is the same story as Soybeans. Just one or two Big Pro Bars came in down at the 408 lows with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence, and Corn has broken into an uptrend. The ags are moving with Professional backing.
6E – Euro Futures: 1.15 Without Conviction
The Euro put in a couple of Signal Longs this week and is heading up toward 1.15 as the US Dollar weakens. But there are no Big Pro Bars behind the move. With so many markets showing genuine Big Pro Bar activity and convincing trends, there is no need to jump into a forex trade without conviction.
6B – British Pound Futures: Stair Step, No Conviction
The British Pound last saw Big Pro Bars come in at 1.345 and has weakened from there. Some blue Professional bars came in, then Big Pro Bars appeared on the retrace, setting up a Stair step trade that could break into a downtrend. Ideally some blue Professional up bars take profits first – but again, without Big Pro Bar conviction, not all that interesting.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Counter Trend Rally
The Aussie Dollar strengthened a little this week after a nasty sell-off down to almost 68.50 – but there were no Big Pro Bars right at the lows. These forex rallies look like moves that just get sold off until the Big Pro Bars show up at the bottom. Watch out for that.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Amateur-Led Rally
The Japanese Yen put in a nice rally this week, but it is being led by the Amateurs, with Rambo patterns at the highs and no Big Pro Bars at the lows – just some Professional profit-taking down there. The last real Professional activity was shorting at 63 with Big Pro Bars into an exhaustion buy. Like the other forex charts, this looks like a counter trend rally that resolves to the downside until the Big Pro Bars step in at the lows.
Pattern of the Week: The Rambo to Rambo Channel
The Emini 13,500 tick bar chart served up a textbook Rambo to Rambo channel this week. A Rambo pattern is a potential reversal of an Amateur breakout or breakdown: the Amateurs pile in, get wrong-footed, and the market immediately goes the other way. This week they got long at the false breakout above 7600 and were wrong-footed down, then got short at the lows and were wrong-footed back up – two Rambo patterns bracketing the range. That is the whole game in one chart: Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 6 July 2026
Markets are back to normal on Monday after the holiday. The key tell is whether blue Professional bars step in on the Emini 15-minute chart Monday or Tuesday to hold the move and push through 7600 – the 4th of July seasonal pattern says the bulls have the edge. Beyond that, watch whether the 10-Year Notes level holds or U-Turns, whether Crude confirms a floor above 67.50, and whether the forex counter trend rallies start rolling over. It is a game of probabilities: see the setup, find the entry, take a piece out of the market.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Okay, this video on Saturday, the 4th of July 2026, just gone 7:14 PM Chicago time. Do hope you are doing well. So it’s the weekend, time for another weekend futures market recap. We’ll go through 15 of the largest futures markets and I’ll show you what I’m seeing on my charts. First of all, a big happy 4th of July to all the Americans listening to the channel – happy 250th anniversary. Extraordinary. I hope everybody is enjoying the celebrations. 250 years doesn’t actually seem like all that much. My mother lived to 95, so that’s two and a half entire lifetimes. You think back and, wow, that’s really not that long ago. But the achievements, the contributions that the Americans have made to global society and so on – just extraordinary. So well done, congratulations, and don’t think it’s going unnoticed around the world. I know we’ve got the World Cup going on at the moment, but people are aware of the importance of the 4th of July, particularly this 4th of July. My wife, Mrs Emini-Watch, who’s Canadian, was actually wished a happy 4th of July by a couple of friends. So people do know what’s going on and how important it is. It gave all of us a little bit of a rest on the Friday because the markets were shut. Everything is going to be back to normal on Monday, and we’ve got some good things going on. My video from two or three weeks ago, the summer of risk – I think it’s still going to play out. I got a couple of messages from people this week because we had a bounce in the Emini saying well done catching the low – they actually thought it would go the other way. Just to remind people: yes, we’re forecasting what the market will do, but really what this is all about is seeing the setup and jumping on board, making sure you’re part of the opportunity when you see your particular edge line up. My edge is the Big Pro Bars – when the average trade size jumps up super high and we have real large Professional activity on board. It’s seeing that, then finding the best entry after that happens and taking a piece out of the market. It’s a game of probabilities at the end of the day, and putting enough of those winning trades together one after another. We got some right, we got some wrong. I don’t know what’s going to happen next. I do know we’re having a bounce at the moment, but we’ll look at the 13,500 tick bar chart and I’ll talk you through what I’m thinking. We’re going to talk about a bunch of Big Pro Bars. Two or three weeks ago there was a week when I think the only chart that showed Big Pro Bars was Gold. This week, they’re popping up everywhere. There’s a lot of activity going on despite it being summer doldrums. The professionals are busying away, so I’ll show you what they’re up to and what I think is going on in each of those charts.
Emini Daily Chart (02:52): Emini first as usual. Here we go, the daily chart of the Emini, and this important support, the trailing support on Better Pro Am, has held. So 7310 has held. Last four days, this week’s activity – bang, the market held on Monday and we’ve been rallying ever since. 7600 as a resistance psychological level is super important up here. I know we still have these end of trends sitting out here, but we don’t have blue Professional up bars taking profits. We don’t have Amateur up bars showing the move is being led by the Amateurs and might get exhausted. We’re neutral in terms of momentum on the daily chart. So looking good.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (03:33): 135-minute chart, next timeframe down. This is the 7310 support level on Better Pro Am holding, blue Professional bars coming in here a couple of weeks ago. That level has held. We tested down, we had two nasty retracement weeks. We have a squeeze pattern, which is when the support and resistance lines and price are super tight together on Better Sine Wave – that convergence, confluence happening here ends up being a squeeze pattern that holds. We break out of that into a trending pattern. Momentum-wise, I think this is an exhaustion buy getting us going, breaking us out of that channel we had. I’m looking for this type of move at the end to end the move – so I’m not reading that exhaustion as ending this move, it’s starting this move. And we’re neutral, -16,000 here on Better Momentum. Breaking back up through 7600 would be good. Remember, this is the 4th of July seasonal pattern lining up. If you check your Google Calendar, we’ve got a little app calendar that loads onto that showing you where the seasonal patterns are – just look for the seasonality indicator on the emini-watch.com website. Holidays normally are bullish and the 4th of July is a bullish period, so we’re having some strength because of that. We could easily push through 7600 this week and then start looking for new highs after that. The retracement into those blue Professional bars has held, and at the moment it looks good for continuation on the 135-minute chart.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (05:09): Fifteen-minute chart, a little bit more detail here. There are the professionals coming in – Big Pro Bars on this chart holding that low. There’s that squeeze pattern, come out of that into a trending move. Softened a little bit with Thursday’s activity. Nothing in terms of momentum there – it’s negative at the moment, but let’s see. Background is in red so we’re still in an uptrend here. We’ve fussed around with all of our cyclical patterns and we’re just caught in a little bit of a cyclical confluence. Now on this chart we add in vertical yellow dotted lines for the beginnings and ends of the week. Didn’t have one on this week because that was Juneteenth, and the indicator sometimes gets a little messed up when we have these odd holidays pop up. This is the two-week retracement that we had, a whole bunch of squeeze patterns happening here, and we bust out of that into a trending move. Now, Rambo patterns with exhaustion patterns on the way up means the Amateurs are getting excited – the move is being led by Amateur activity, low average trade size in large numbers, with an exhaustion pattern coming together. We had a little bit of a test up under 7600 and we failed from there. So we need blue Professional bars on the 15-minute chart to come in here. We’ve got a -18,000 read here, so it’s not an exhaustion sell read yet – it needs to get up to 25,000 to be that order of magnitude. I’m not sure what we’re going to do yet, but we’re looking for blue Professional bars to come in to hold this move, to show us they’re active on the lows and that they’re going to push this higher. This move is not over, because we’ve not seen blue Professional bars taking profits. The only reason it’s weakening at the moment is because it was being led by the Amateurs – it’s just temporarily run out of puff. We need blue Professional bars to step in like they did here to hold the move and come back up. I’ll be looking for that on Monday, Tuesday’s trade.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar Chart (07:11): Here’s the 13,500 tick bar chart, and this is the one that’s a little bit interesting, confusing, I don’t know. Sometimes you have to wait and see what happens after the blue Professional bars come in. Let me walk you through how I see this. The beginnings and ends of the week here – we had Big Pro Bars coming in at the end of last week, and then at the beginning of this week we had a little bit of a sell-off. All the blue Professional bars come in here: exhaustion sell, bullish divergence and Big Pro Bars. So they’re getting active, we’ve got everything coming together, and that starts the rally. 7440 starts it off and we get up to 7560 or 7570 – what is that, a 120, 130 point move from here to here. And then they step in again taking profits: exhaustion buy, bearish divergence comes in here. We have a false breakout up to 7600 with Rambo patterns. A Rambo is a potential reversal of an Amateur breakout or breakdown – the Amateurs are wrong-footed and it immediately goes the other way. And we got a Rambo to Rambo channel, because they come in here too: they’re getting long and get wrong-footed, and here they’re getting short and get wrong-footed, and it goes back the other way. That’s quite a lot of blue Professional bars coming in on the 13,500, and it just moved up from here to here – and we’re finding it difficult to break up through 7600. So what are we doing on Better Sine Wave? We’ve got to play this thing out. We’re in an uptrend. Big things happen at triples – that’s the big-things-happen-at-triples signal. We’re breaking out of resistance on the highest timeframe, we put in pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe, and we’re coming down to cyclical support on the highest timeframe, from which we’ll put in a pullback to end of trend move. At some point, when these two come together cyclically, that’ll be a good place for support to come in, and then we’ll push up to put in pullback to end of trend. It was a little bit of a surprise to me that there were so many Big Pro Bars coming in here. I could imagine some blue Professional bars taking profits here and then stepping in on the lows, but that’s not what happened – they’re taking profit at the highs. This cyclical pattern is going to play in at some point. We could easily have a little bit of a run for 7600 again because of the seasonal pattern – around the 4th of July the market tends to be bullish. And there’s activity happening in other markets that are also bullish and driving prices up. The higher timeframe charts are showing us we’re still in an uptrend. That’s how I read it at the moment on the tick bar chart on the Emini.
Gold (09:56): Gold – we talked about this last weekend setting up for a long trade. Big Pro Bars came in towards the end of last week, we had our exhaustion sell, had our signal. We tested down here this week to 3980 and Big Pro Bars came in again. We test again with the Amateur down bars, flush patterns here flushing out the last of the sellers, and bang, we start to rally. So we’re up at 4200 on Gold. This was Big Pro Bars selling it down at that point, and then they picked it back up at 4000 and now we’re rallying again. No blue Professional bars taking profits yet, so we’re in an uptrend on Gold.
Silver (10:35): Silver also. A couple of weekends ago we did not see Big Pro Bars come in, but this week they did on the retrace. Down here at 56.5 we didn’t see Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows – we had blue Professional bars coming in – but then on this retrace, the Big Pro Bars are happening on the way down. That whole level, 58, holds on Silver and bang, we’ve broken into an uptrend. That’s good. Precious metals are rallying and we’ve got Big Pro Bars behind both of those moves. That’s strong.
Bitcoin (11:06): Bitcoin as well – we’ve been talking about this over the last several weeks, saying here are the Big Pro Bars coming in a couple of weeks ago. We had a double bottom in Bitcoin – last weekend’s video we talked about that on this 13,500 tick bar chart. We had Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows at $60K a few weeks ago, and now they came in at $59K. Down here they held it. We had squeeze patterns, Rambo patterns at the lows, and then we get our break. Professional bars behind this breakout above $60K and the move’s on its way. They’ve not taken profits up here – we’re just weakening a little bit at the moment – but we’re up at $63K on Bitcoin. So we’ve got ourselves a rally happening in Bitcoin.
Ethereum (11:48): Ethereum, same thing. We had a nice clean pattern – what’s that, four weeks, five weeks ago almost. Big Pro Bars come in here at 1500, 1550. We had a race away but no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. We came back and tested back into that level, squeeze patterns, and we bust out of that into an uptrend up to 1800. It’s being led by the Amateurs at the moment – we’ve got Rambo patterns over the weekend here, so it could soften from there. But then just look for the next area where the Big Pro Bars or the Professional bars come in on the dip for a continuation of the uptrend in Ethereum.
10-Year Notes (12:27): Ten-years – we also talked about this last weekend, where they were rolling around up here. Coming into those highs, Big Pro Bars on the way up taking profits, we had an exhaustion buy, and then at the beginning of this week we had our Signal Short and we’re selling off. Now Big Pro Bars have come in at the lows, and it’s not particularly moved very far – it’s not moved down to these levels down here. So let’s see if that level holds this week, or if we just crash through it, because this might look like a fairly big U-Turn happening here: they’re taking profits on the way up and then they’re getting this thing going on the way down. We’ll wait and see if that level holds on the ten-years. That’s the last Signal Short that we had there.
Crude (13:08): Crude has been in a big downtrend, except we had a Big Pro Bar this week coming in at 67.50, down here at the lows. Rambo pattern right at the lows – the Amateurs getting it wrong, thinking it’s going even weaker. And did we get exhaustion sells? No – we have an exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, flushing the last patterns that we have. That was just one at 68, a Big Pro Bar coming in there. But it’s interesting that all of a sudden this is the level where the professionals started to get interested. Go back a few weeks to the beginning of May, and there are the Big Pro Bars up at 102 on the way up, getting interested short on the way down. It’s been a prolonged downtrend in Crude, and maybe down at these levels the professionals are starting to pick back up – they think this is maybe the beginnings of a decent area to take profits down here. We’re looking for matching patterns where we have Big Pro Bars at the highs followed by Big Pro Bars at the lows. They’re selling the highs and they’re buying the lows – that’s all we’re trying to do, catch those swings in the Big Pro Bars.
Copper (14:14): Copper – last weekend, yep, we had a signal in Copper. Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows at $6. We have some strength this week. Background is in red. It hasn’t really got going yet, but we’re testing. Amateur down bars into these lows, no blue Professional bars taking profits at these highs. That’s good. Let’s see if Copper continues to rally this week.
Soybeans (14:36): Soybeans triggered this week. Big Pro Bars come in here at 1128. Exhaustion sells, Big Pro Bars, Signal Long. Some blue Professional bars taking profits here, but background is in red, so we should be in an uptrend in Soybeans, which is good.
Corn (14:52): Corn, same thing. Big Pro Bars come in – just one or two bars down here at the lows at 408, with exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, and we’re in an uptrend on Corn.
Euro (15:04): All the forex charts here – not a lot going on in forex in terms of Big Pro Bars, but we are rallying. The US Dollar is weakening at the moment. This week’s activity in the Euro: we had a couple of Signal Longs, market’s heading up to 1.15. I’m not so convinced about these markets because we don’t have those Big Pro Bars. We’ve got so many markets that have Big Pro Bar activity – which is super important – with convincing trending moves, that there’s no need to jump into a forex trade where we don’t have that much conviction.
British Pound (15:35): Big Pro Bars last came into the British Pound at 1.345. We weakened from there. Some blue Professional bars come in here, but on the retrace some Big Pro Bars come in. We’ve got our Stair step trade. I don’t know if we’re going to break that into a downtrend – I’d like to see some blue Professional up bars take profits there. But again, if there’s no conviction with Big Pro Bars, I’m not all that interested.
Aussie Dollar (16:00): The Aussie Dollar strengthened a little bit this week. It was nasty, the sell-off we had, down to almost 68.50. But no Big Pro Bars right at the lows. These are just rallies happening in these forex markets that are going to end up being sold off until we get the Big Pro Bars coming in at the lows. Just watch out for that.
Japanese Yen (16:21): Japanese Yen is the last one. Same thing – a nice rally in the Japanese Yen, but being led by the Amateurs. Rambo patterns at the highs. We didn’t have Big Pro Bars at the lows down here – we had some Professional profit-taking down there. The last time they were in, they were shorting that move at 63 with Big Pro Bars into an exhaustion buy, and we need to see those Big Pro Bars coming in. These, to me, just look like counter trend rallies that will resolve to the downside until we have those Big Pro Bars step in right at the lows when it’s all sold off.
Wrap-Up (16:53): Alrighty, there we go. Hope your trading is going well. Monday, back to normal business. Again, happy 4th of July to all the Americans, and good luck with your trading next week.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every signal in this recap – Big Pro Bars, exhaustion buys and sells, squeeze patterns, Rambo patterns and the Signal Longs and Shorts – comes from the Better Trading Indicators, built on CME average trade size data. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
