This is the 28 June 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series. A frustrating week: the Emini retraced into critical support and the background is still gray, so we are technically in a downtrend. I might have been a touch too bullish over the last couple of weeks, and a lot of people think I have this one wrong. All I can do is show you the charts. The Pros are still legging in at the lows, and the two charts to watch are Gold and Bitcoin.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini still bullish but on a knife edge. 7310 is the key support, roughly 90 to 100 points away. We need to reclaim 7600 to confirm the next leg up. Background is gray, squeeze patterns everywhere, and a failure here opens a one-way move lower toward the 6500 zone.
- Gold and Bitcoin are the high-conviction longs. Gold printed exhaustion sells plus bullish divergence at 4000 and fired a Signal Long. Bitcoin is building a double bottom at 58K to 59K with Big Pro Bars and high average trade size – Pros are legging in.
- Crude and the Yen are not confirming. Despite Middle East news, the Pros sold the Crude rally and did not step in at the lows. Copper bucked the trend with a Signal Long near 6.10.
Macro Setup This Week
Big week ahead. The US has major economic releases coming out almost every day, including a JOLTS number and CPI in focus, which could decide whether equities get the impetus for the next up leg or lurch lower first. Over the weekend the Iran ceasefire and peace agreement looks like it is breaking down, so we could see a reaction in Crude on the Sunday night open if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a problem again. Here in Australia it is the end of the financial year on 30 June, with major capital gains tax changes forcing everyone to scramble on structures for the new year.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: Pinned to 7310 Support
The Emini spent the whole week retracing and the picture is tense across every timeframe. Daily chart: blue Professional bars came in on the way down, not the way up, suggesting they were legging in, but that low has failed. 7310 is the key support, about 90 points away, and momentum is showing a possible bullish divergence, though not a classic one. 135-minute: pullback to end of trend on the highest timeframe plus a squeeze setup; we tend to burst out of squeezes into trending moves. 45-minute: Big Pro Bars on the retracement, 7310 absolutely key, all three timeframes tightly locked up. 15-minute: no exhaustion sells and no blue Professional bars at the lows – not what bulls want to see. 13,500 tick bar: Big Pro Bars came in at the end of the week, but on the retrace rather than at the lows, and we are below that level. We need to reclaim 7600 to confirm the uptrend. This is exactly the kind of read the Better Trading Indicators are built for. Background gray means we are still in the downtrend until proven otherwise.
GC – Gold Futures: Signal Long off 4000
Gold is the standout chart this week. Big professional bars sold it down from the 4600 high and again at 4400, then kept selling all the way to the psychological 4000 level. At those lows we got blue boxes, exhaustion sells, bullish divergence and Amateur down bars testing into the lows, followed by a bounce and a Signal Long. On the 3000 tick bar chart we are past support on the highest timeframe with a pullback to end of trend and a first sign of strength as the bars break red. Gold looks set up for a rally this week, especially with international politics in play.
SI – Silver Futures: Lagging Gold, No Big Pro Bars Yet
Silver has a similar shape to Gold but without the conviction. The last time the Pros were active they were selling it down; we tested into that zone and kept falling. There are some blue Professional bars and a bit of strength at the end of the week, but no Big Pro Bars yet. Silver may come along for the ride if Gold rallies, but it is not leading.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Double Bottom at 58K
Bitcoin remains a bullish chart for me. Going back two to three weeks, Big Pro Bars came in with an exhaustion sell down into the 60K to 62K area, and we rallied. We faded again this week, almost a double bottom, dipping toward 58K from 60K. At those lows the Pros are legging in – Big Pro Bars at 58K to 59K with exhaustion sell and very high average trade size. No Signal yet, but I am liking Bitcoin for a rally and it will be interesting if we get the trigger this week.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Like Silver, No Conviction
Ethereum is playing a slightly different tune. Big Pro Bars came in at the 1500 lows two to three weeks ago and we rallied, but then faded back into 1500 with double testing and Amateur down bars into the lows. We have not broken back above the trailing stop and there is no cluster of blue Professional bars at the lows. Ethereum is like Silver – it might come along for the ride, but it lacks the conviction Gold and Bitcoin have.
ZN – 10-Year Note Futures: Exhaustion Buy at the Highs
The 10-Year got interesting this week after weeks of going backwards and forwards. Big Pro Bars came in at the highs with an exhaustion buy. If this breaks down this week it implies CPI is not great and rates are heading up, with important economic releases due. One to watch.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Pros Selling the Rally
Crude surprised me. With the Middle East ceasefire breaking down, I expected a response, but the Pros gave no reaction at the lows – they have been selling the rally. A couple of bars came in at the end of the week, but not right at the lows. We had exhaustion sell, exhaustion buy and ran out of puff. If aggression resumes and the Strait of Hormuz becomes an issue, I would expect more professional activity, but it has not happened yet. Watch the Sunday night open.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Pros Taking Profits
Natural Gas has not started to rally either. There were Big Pro Bars at the end of the week, but they have not been picking up at the lows – as it rallied they were taking profits into 3.34. Let’s see which way this breaks with the blue Professional bars. If it breaks down with Crude, that means Crude and Natural Gas heading down and CPI heading down, which is all good news. We have not seen it in the charts yet.
HG – Copper Futures: Signal Long on the Breakout
Copper has not had a mention in a while, but it signaled this week. Big Pro Bars coming up off the lows, a breakout, and a Signal Long near 6.10. That is an interesting one against the broader risk-off tone.
6E – Euro FX Futures: Pros Took Profits at 1.45
The Euro has been quiet. The USD has been strong over the last couple of weeks and the Euro is trying to hold down here at 1.40. Blue Professional bars came in and took profits at 1.45 heading down. No Big Pro Bars yet on Euro.
6B – British Pound Futures: Politics in Play
The British Pound has a political backdrop, with talk of a new prime minister likely coming in (Keir Starmer out, Andy Burnham being lined up). The last time we saw Big Pro Bars into the highs was at 1.345 and we have sold off since. There is a bit of a rally, but nothing much in terms of Big Pro Bars yet.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Not Ready to Rally
The Aussie Dollar is hurting me. Down here at 0.68 again, with no Big Pro Bars over the last couple of weeks. Not ready to rally yet.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Still Waiting
The Japanese Yen is the same story – not yet ready to rally. Big Pro Bars came in on what looked like a rate announcement and they sold it down, bang bang bang. No Big Pro Bars at the lows yet on the Yen.
Pattern of the Week: Pros Legging In at the Lows
The teaching moment this week is the difference between conviction and noise. On Gold and Bitcoin, the Big Pro Bars and high average trade size are showing up right at the lows – exhaustion sells, bullish divergence, Pros accumulating into Amateur selling. On Silver, Ethereum, the Aussie and the Yen, the same lows show no Big Pro Bars at all. Same chart shape, completely different smart-money footprint. That is the whole game: follow the Professionals, fade the Amateurs. When the Pros are not there, the bounce is just hope. Learn to read it at Follow the Pros.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 29 June 2026
This is a heavy news week with US releases almost every day and a possible CPI surprise, so expect volatility. The Emini is sitting on a cluster of squeeze-pattern support that could easily break, so I am watching 7310 and a reclaim of 7600. I am not willing to call the rally dead, but a nasty lurch down before the ship rights itself is on the table. Meanwhile Gold and Bitcoin look interesting, so there is plenty to do.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): On Sunday 28 June 2026, just gone six minutes past midnight Chicago time. It is the weekend and time for another weekend futures market recap, going through 15 of the largest futures markets to show you what I am seeing on my charts. Super busy week – we are coming up to the end of the financial year here in Australia on 30 June, and this year the federal government changed a lot of the tax laws, particularly capital gains tax, so everybody is running around trying to set up structures for the next financial year.
The week ahead (00:52): This next week is going to be super important with a whole bunch of releases coming out almost every day from the US federal government. Last weekend I said this was a retracement week waiting for the next leg up, and it continued. We are sitting dangerously close to support lines and I am wondering if they will fail. Plus we have news that the ceasefire and peace agreement with the Iranians is not working out and we are back at war. Crude has not jumped to reflect that yet, but we could see it on the Sunday night open. I am a little frustrated and hoping the news and releases this week give us the impetus for the next up leg. A lot of people think I have this one wrong; all I can do is show you the charts and why I think we are still in a strong uptrend that has just had a retracement.
Emini Daily Chart (02:22): We spent the week retracing down. Blue Professional bars came in on the way down, not the way up, so I think they were legging in, but that low has failed and we pressed down all week. 7310 is a pretty important support level, about 90 points away. Momentum has come off strongly, but that could be a divergence pattern. I am not a stickler for strict divergence – classic divergence would be a lower low in price and a higher low in momentum. Here we could get a bullish divergence because we have a higher momentum read but not a lower price read. It is a nasty negative read, but not as bad as the sell off down at 6500. Let’s see if that is enough selling to catch us in this zone and keep going up.
Emini 135-Minute (04:26): In terms of cycles we are running out of puff. We put in a pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe and this week on the lowest timeframe too. That is a lot of end of trends, with cyclical resistance on the highest timeframe, showing a pause in the uptrend. It does not necessarily mean a trend change – it means we pause until we get a resumption, which could be the same direction or a reversal. For me that is not a good enough top to say we are reversing, so I read this as a pause and possible consolidation until we break back up. The blue Professional bars stepped in on the last little retrace and we are testing down into that zone, with squeeze patterns at the top. The 7310 local low is super important.
Emini 45-Minute (05:29): Same thing – that retracement with Big Pro Bars and blue Professional bars, the 7310 level absolutely key, about 100 points away, and that is all the confluence we have. There is a squeeze pattern showing super tight support and resistance across all three timeframes. This little retracement needs to hold; we need to get back above 7600 to see a continuation of the uptrend.
Emini 15-Minute (06:00): The gap up from a couple of weeks ago ended with Amateur up bars. We are missing a vertical yellow dotted line for the start and end of the week, probably because of the 19 June holiday and the code did not pick up the week end. This is two weeks of activity from the recent high down. Are there exhaustion patterns or blue Professional bars at the lows? No. The blue Professional bars are midstream and we are below them. No exhaustion sells or divergence here. The last patterns were exhaustion buy and bearish divergence. Background is gray, we are weak, and that is why we have squeeze patterns – if this fails it takes us into a one-way trending move and puts this low in play.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (07:01): Super tight support and resistance, which is why we have all these squeeze boxes in cyan. We tend to burst out of squeezes into trends. There are blue Professional bars two weeks ago taking profits at the highs and downtrending signals. Last week we had no Big Pro Bars and the background was not blue. We had a couple of blue Professional bars but no Big Pro Bars at the high, which is why I did not take that short signal too seriously. At the end of this week we got Big Pro Bars, but on the retrace, not the lows, and we are below that level – not good. Momentum is minus 15,000, almost an exhaustion read. The three signals I am looking for – exhaustion sell with bullish divergence on the way down, blue Professional bars at the lows, and sine wave – are not there yet. I have been a little too bullish over the last couple of weeks and it has not panned out yet.
Gold (09:22): The one chart with Big Pro Bars last week. They sold it down from the 4600 high, got involved at 4400, and kept selling to 4000. At 4000 we have blue boxes at the lows, exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, another exhaustion sell, Amateur down bars into the lows, a bounce, and a Signal Long. On the 3000 tick bar chart we are past support on the highest timeframe, with a pullback to end of trend on the lowest and a first sign of strength as bars break red. Gold is looking interesting for a rally, especially with international politics and the Middle East.
Silver (10:43): A similar setup, but no Big Pro Bars yet. The last time they were active was selling it down; we tested into that zone and kept going down. Some blue Professional bars and strength at the end of the week, but no Big Pro Bars. Gold is a bit different from Silver here.
Bitcoin (11:03): I have been bullish on Bitcoin. Two or three weeks ago at 60K to 62K we had Big Pro Bars with an exhaustion sell down into the lows and rallied, with a nice test on blue Professional bars. No blue Professional bars taking profits at the high, and we weakened this week. This is almost a double bottom, cruising lower toward 58K from 60K. At those lows the Pros are legging in – Big Pro Bars at 58K to 59K, exhaustion sell, and we are starting to rally. No Signal yet, but I am liking Bitcoin. The average trade size is super high, so they are buying there. It will be interesting if we get the Signal this week.
Ethereum (12:18): A slightly different pattern. At the 1500 lows two to three weeks ago Big Pro Bars came in and we rallied, no blue Professional bars taking profits at the high, then faded back into 1500 with double testing and Amateur down bars into the lows. We have not broken back above the trailing stop and there is no cluster of blue Professional bars at the lows. Ethereum is like Silver – it might come along for the ride, but lacks the conviction Gold and Bitcoin have.
10-Year (13:02): Interesting this week. After several weeks of backwards and forwards, Big Pro Bars came in at the highs with an exhaustion buy. Let’s see if this breaks down this week, which would mean CPI is not great and rates are going up, with important economic releases due.
Crude (13:26): I was surprised on Friday. With inklings the Middle East ceasefire is breaking, I expected a response, but there was none by the big Professionals at the lows – they have been selling the rally. A couple of bars at the end of the week, but not right at the lows. Exhaustion sell, exhaustion buy, ran out of puff. If aggression resumes and the Strait of Hormuz becomes a problem, I would expect more professional activity in Crude, but it has not happened yet.
Natural Gas (14:15): Has not started to rally either. Big Pro Bars at the end of the week, but not picking up at the lows – as it rallied they were taking profits into 3.34. Let’s see which way it breaks with the blue Professional bars. If it breaks down with Crude, that means Crude and Natural Gas down and CPI down, which is all good news. We have not seen it in the charts yet; we will wait for Sunday into Monday.
Copper (14:54): Not talked about in a while, but it signaled this week. Big Pro Bars up off the lows, a breakout, and a Signal Long near 6.10. Interesting.
Euro (15:08): Not much going on in forex. The USD has been strong, but the Euro is trying to hold down at 1.40. Blue Professional bars took profits at 1.45 heading down. No Big Pro Bars yet on Euro.
British Pound (15:25): A new prime minister likely coming in (Keir Starmer out, Andy Burnham being lined up). The last time we saw Big Pro Bars into the highs was at 1.345 and we have sold off since. A bit of a rally, but nothing much in terms of Big Pro Bars yet.
Aussie Dollar (15:47): This is hurting me. Down at 0.68 again, no Big Pro Bars over the last couple of weeks. Not ready to rally yet.
Japanese Yen (16:00): Same thing, not yet ready to rally. Big Pro Bars came in on what I think was a rate announcement and they sold it down. No Big Pro Bars at the lows yet on the Yen.
Wrap (16:11): Money is still flowing into the US, presumably into equities, but we have not seen it yet with a rally in the Emini. I am not willing to say it is dead, but we are pretty close to important support levels and could see a nasty lurch down before the ship rights itself and we continue into a rally. A lot of news announcements this week, so it might be volatile. Background is gray, so we are still in the downtrend. We are sitting on squeeze-pattern convergence support that could easily break, so be aware. In the meantime, Gold looking interesting, Bitcoin looking interesting – plenty to do. Hope your trading is going well.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every read above – Big Pro Bars, exhaustion sells, squeeze setups, pullback to end of trend – comes straight off the Better Trading Indicators. They show you where the Professionals are buying and selling so you can follow the Professionals and fade the Amateurs on your own charts. Get them here and trade this week with the same setups I use.
