This is the 14 June 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series. This weekend marks what I am calling the beginning of the Summer of Risk On. Despite all the fear porn about the SpaceX IPO marking a top, the professionals are buying dips, not selling peaks, and I think the market could surprise to the upside leading into the November midterms.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: Pros bought the 7300 dip with Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion buy. The uptrend is intact while support holds. A break above 7550 Sunday into Monday and this thing gets going. Tight risk at 7408.
- Crypto: Bitcoin pros loaded the dip at 60 while amateurs sold the lows. Ethereum printed Big Pro Bars by week end with 1700 now in play. Both are at cyclical turning points.
- Silver and Crude: Both look like fading blow-off moves. Silver is breaking down from 130, and Crude’s run to 110 has the same look. Watch for the energy complex and inflation to come off.
Macro Setup This Week
The crowd is convinced the SpaceX IPO marks the top, pointing to 1929, 1999, 2007 and 2021 as precedent. I do not see it in the charts yet. The uptrend is not over until we see blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, and we simply have not. The backdrop is constructive: the SpaceX IPO is pulling retail back into equities, the World Cup is a psychological positive, treasury secretary Scott Bessent has every incentive to goose the economy into the midterms, the Iran war may be winding down, and Ukraine has gone quiet. That is a lot of potential good news with the market already at record highs.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: Pros Bought the Dip, No Selling at the Highs
The single most important point: in this entire cycle there are no blue Professional up bars selling the peak. The last professional activity was buying the dip. Daily chart: Better Sine Wave bars have been red since April-May 2025, confirming the uptrend, and we never broke support on the intermediate timeframe. 135-minute: a Rambo pattern topped the amateurs at 7575, then Big Pro Bars defended 7309. 45-minute: Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion buy at 7300 got the move going. 15-minute: Big Pro Bars stepped in, we got our Signal Long, background still red, no pros taking profits. 13,500 tick bar: the only fly in the ointment, professionals stepped in but not the Big Pro Bars I wanted to mirror the highs. Tight stop at 7408. These are the patterns I trade with the Better Trading Indicators.
NQ – Nasdaq Futures: Blue Professional Bars Buying the Dip
Same structure as the Emini, but the Nasdaq gives a cleaner read. Price overshot resistance on the intermediate timeframe, came back, and put in a pull back to end of trend. Critically, the blue Professional bars came in on the dip over the last three or four days, not on the peak. The professionals are telling me they are buying. Follow the professionals, fade the amateurs, so we follow along.
SI – Silver Futures: Blow-Off Top Breaking Down from 130
The silver bulls were calling for the moon at 130. It was a blow-off move. Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion buy came in at 130, and every rally back toward the highs has failed as trapped longs try to get out at 120, 110, 90. Now it is breaking down. At some point support on the highest timeframe comes in and we get another push back up, because markets go up and down, but for now the professionals took advantage of all that hype and nobody is talking about silver anymore.
GC – Gold Futures: No Blow-Off at the Highs, Still a Chance
Gold is in a slightly different position. We did not see the blow-off activity right at the 5500 highs. The professionals came in at 4500 and kept going, so because we never saw that pattern at the top, I still give gold a chance of coming back up through 5500. But it needs to find support on the highest timeframe first. When the declines come together down near negative 100 and that area holds, we test back up. Until then, nothing is happening in silver or gold.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: War Premium Fading, Looks Like Silver
The pundits say crude is going through the roof and we will never see 50 dollar oil again. To me that has the look of silver. The war premium ran to 110 with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence, and it has come down. It might test back into the 100s, but the pattern looks like the silver top. On the daily there is a pull back to end of trend at resistance, not yet broken into a downtrend. On the tick bar, professionals sold the rally at 94 and there are no blue Professional bars catching it yet, so we could see a nasty down move. Crude could be part of the good news story: lower energy, lower inflation, lower rates, lower cost of living.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Exhaustion Sell, Possible Rally Off 3
Natural gas shows a similar pattern to crude on the daily, with Big Pro Bars from the spike at 4.00 to 4.50 and Amateur up bars into bearish divergence. It is holding at 3.00. On the tick bar chart there is a hint of a rally this week: Big Pro Bars with an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence at the end of the week, and the market is starting to rally. So natural gas may diverge slightly from crude, but keep in mind the broader energy complex looks like it is coming off.
HYG – High Yield Bonds: Starting to Rally
A good-news type chart. Big Pro Bars came in this April, just as they did last April, and the market rallied. There are no blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, and on the dip into 78 we got Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion sell. We are in an uptrend and need a break back above cyclical resistance for the background to turn red. Watch for HYG to push up through 80.5 to 81 for continuation of the rally.
6E – Euro Futures: Triple Support Setup, Watch 117
The Euro bottomed at 106, close to parity, then Big Pro Bars got interested at 110 and pushed the move. No professionals took profits at the peaks. They bought the dip at 115 in April with Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion sell, and over the last couple of days we tested back into 115 and held. We have support on the highest timeframe, just broke support on the lowest, and the intermediate cross is due, so we could be caught by triple support across all three timeframes. A break above 117, or toward 118-119 over the next couple of weeks, would be very interesting.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Amateurs Sold 60, Pros Loaded the Dip
This is what has me really interested. After last weekend’s special on the crypto sell-off, the 13,500 tick bar printed Big Pro Bars at 60, gave a signal, tested with a stair step trade and blue Professional bars at the lows, and this weekend it is starting to rally. On the daily futures chart we have overshot support on the highest timeframe and put in the left shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulders, with cyclical support on the intermediate timeframe due to go off shortly. The tell: blue Professional bars buying the dip into 65 while amateurs sold it down at 60. The amateurs are getting it wrong and the professionals are picking it up.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Big Pro Bars, 1700 in Play
Last weekend Ethereum had not seen as many Big Pro Bars as Bitcoin, but by the end of the week the Big Pro Bars arrived, the background turned blue, we got our signal, and Rambo patterns tested the lows. Now 1700 looks in play on the 13,500 tick bar chart. On the daily, Big Pro Bars came in at 2000 with Rambo patterns down at 1500, so the amateurs could be wrong-footed, and cyclically we are about to put in a pull back to end of trend as the head of an inverted head and shoulders. Ethereum just needs to show some strength.
Pattern of the Week: Pros Buying the Dip, Not Selling the Peak
The whole thesis this week rests on one observation that repeats across the Emini, Nasdaq, Bitcoin and Ethereum: blue Professional bars and Big Pro Bars are showing up on the dips, and there are no professional bars taking profits at the highs. That is the opposite of what you see at a real top. Average trade size, our read on professional activity from CME data, is bumping up where amateurs are panic-selling. When the pros are accumulating into amateur fear, you follow the professionals and fade the amateurs. Follow the pros is the entire edge here.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 15 June 2026
The line in the sand is 7550 on the Emini. A gap and go above it Sunday into Monday confirms the Summer of Risk On, with risk defined at 7408. Otherwise we test back into the lows to find the Big Pro Bars we never saw. Watch Bitcoin and Ethereum for their cyclical turns, the Euro for a break above 117, and the energy complex for further weakness. The good thing about markets is you find out quickly whether you are right or wrong.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Saturday, 13 June 2026, just gone 7:55 PM Chicago time. It is the weekend, so it is time for another weekend futures market recap going through 15 of the largest futures markets. Interesting couple of days. I think this marks the beginning of what I am going to call the Summer of Risk On, just like the famous Seinfeld episode, Summer of George. This activity over the last couple of days, the interest in the SpaceX IPO and the way the market reacted, shows the strength in equities and risk in general, and I think we might really surprise on the upside leading up to the midterms in November. That is when you make big money, when you go against the crowd. There is a lot of fear porn about huge IPOs like SpaceX marking the high, and when you look back at 1929, 1999, 2007 and 2021, but I just do not see it yet in the charts.
Australia tangent (01:27): Before the Emini charts, and as we are talking about risk, we had another shark attack in Sydney at Coogee Beach, a city beach outside the harbour. This is getting ridiculous: 30 attacks in the last 18 months and nine fatalities. It used to be the attacks happened in remote places, but lately they are in heavily populated areas. The sharks are not afraid of us anymore. A lady swimming close to shore was attacked and is fighting for her life. And then yesterday, walking my 10,000 steps, I saw a red bellied black snake sunning himself on the path in the national park, venomous but not a killer. I never think of Australia as a dangerous place, but there are precautions to take.
Emini Daily Chart (02:47): I have been saying this for a year and a half at least: the uptrend is not over until we see blue Professional up bars. The tagline of the channel is follow the professionals, fade the amateurs, and we know professional activity because average trade size bumps up. In this whole cycle we have no blue Professional up bars. The last time we had professionals they were buying the dip, not selling the peak. We have had a bounce because the cycles are so strong. Better Sine Wave bars have all been red since April-May 2025, showing the uptrend. We had a dip but never broke support on the intermediate timeframe, so that whole move was just continuation of the uptrend. Listen to the fear porn like everyone else, but until we see those blue Professional up bars on Better Pro Am, this is not over. There is a lot of negative feeling out there, people trying to catch the high, and we keep blasting through because people do not believe it is real. SpaceX gets retail interested in equities again, the World Cup is psychologically good, Scott Bessent needs to goose the economy and markets into the November midterms, the Iran war could be over in days, and Ukraine has gone quiet.
Nasdaq (06:25): Everybody loves the Nasdaq chart. Same activity as the Emini on Better Sine Wave, overshooting resistance on the intermediate, coming back and bouncing in a pull back in an uptrend. But on the Nasdaq there are the blue Professional bars that came in on the dip, not on the peak, over the last three or four days. The professionals are buying the dip, so we follow along.
Emini 135-Minute (07:01): Exactly three 135-minute bars in a day session of the Emini. This week we topped out with Rambo patterns at the highs, a potential reversal of an amateur breakout, so it was suspect, and we broke 7575. Then the professionals came in on the dip at 7309, they did not want to see it drop far, and we rallied from there. This exhaustion buy could be the one that breaks us into a big trending move rather than topping activity.
Emini 45-Minute (07:59): Same thing. Support on the highest timeframe coming, pull back and end of trend, and on the dip all those Big Pro Bars at 7300 where we bounced. That exhaustion buy is like a gap and go. This is not over until we see an exhaustion buy pattern up at the highs where the professionals come in, and then this could surprise to the upside.
Emini 15-Minute (08:33): Yellow lines mark the beginning and end of the week. We topped out with Amateur up bars, exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, exhaustion sell, profit taking, then into the lows Big Pro Bars stepped in. We test, nothing breaks, we get our Signal Long, background red, no blue Professional bars taking profits yet, momentum neutral. Let us see if the rally continues.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (09:13): The only fly in the ointment. Last weekend I said I would not consider the downtrend move over until we see Big Pro Bars to mirror what we had at the highs. We had Big Pro Bars into the highs with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence, broke down from 7650 to 7300 in a stair step trade. This week the professionals stepped in but not Big Pro Bars, so it did not absolutely mirror the high, which is a shame. Still, plenty of professional activity into the lows with exhaustion sell and bullish divergence. Now we have squeeze patterns showing support and resistance super tight, plus a Rambo with an exhaustion buy, which is unstable. Tight stop at 7408. I could easily see us break out into a big uptrend Sunday into Monday. I am getting super bullish, so the market needs to show us the way, but a crack through resistance and we really get going.
Silver (11:45): I will annoy some people because they do not like to remember the silver chart at 130. The silver bulls said it was going to the moon. Nope, it was a blow-off move. Big Pro Bars at 130 with an exhaustion buy. Every rally into the highs fails as trapped longs try to get out at 120, 110, 90, and now it is breaking down. At some point support on the highest timeframe comes in and we push back up, but this is the professionals taking advantage of all that hype, and nobody is talking about silver and gold anymore.
Gold (12:55): Slightly different, because we did not see the blow-off activity right at the 5500 highs. We saw the professionals at 4500 and they kept going, so I still give gold a chance of coming back up through 5500. But it needs support on the highest timeframe; when the declines come together near negative 100 and that holds, we test back up. Until then, nothing is happening.
Crude (13:33): The pundits say crude is going through the roof and we will never see 50 dollar oil again. That has the look of silver. The war premium ran to 110 with an exhaustion buy and bearish divergence and has come down. On the daily there is a pull back to end of trend at resistance, not yet broken into a downtrend. On the tick bar, professionals sold the rally at 94 and there are no blue Professional bars catching it, so we could see a nasty down move. Crude could be part of the good news story for the next several months: prices drop, inflation comes off, rates come down, cost of living comes down.
Natural Gas (14:57): Similar pattern on the daily, Big Pro Bars from the spike at 4.00 to 4.50 and Amateur up bars into bearish divergence, holding at 3.00. On the tick bar there is a hint of a rally this week, with Big Pro Bars, exhaustion sell and bullish divergence at the end of the week. So natural gas may diverge slightly from crude, but the energy complex looks like it is coming off.
HYG (15:39): High yield junk debt, a good news chart. Big Pro Bars came in this April as they did last April and the market rallied. No blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs, and on the dip into 78 we got Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion sell. We are in an uptrend and need a break above cyclical resistance for the background to turn red. Watch for a push through 80.5 to 81 for continuation.
Euro (16:11): Euro bottomed at 106, close to parity. Big Pro Bars got interested at 110 and pushed the move, no professionals took profits at the peaks, and they bought the dip at 115 in April with Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion sell. We tested back into 115 and held. Support on the highest timeframe, broke support on the lowest, intermediate cross due, so we could be caught by triple support. A break above 117, or toward 118-119, would be interesting for a rally.
Bitcoin (17:36): This has me really interested. After last weekend’s special on the crypto sell-off, the 13,500 tick bar printed Big Pro Bars at 60, gave a signal, tested with a stair step trade and blue Professional bars at the lows, and this weekend it is rallying. On the daily futures chart we overshot support on the highest timeframe and put in the left shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulders, with cyclical support on the intermediate due shortly. Blue Professional bars bought the dip into 65 while amateurs sold at 60. The amateurs got it wrong and the professionals picked it up. On the BTC USD 24/7 chart, blue Professional bars into 65 and no exhaustion weakness, looking a little stronger.
Ethereum (19:32): Last weekend Ethereum had not seen as many Big Pro Bars as Bitcoin, but by the end of the week the Big Pro Bars arrived, the background turned blue, we got our signal, and Rambo patterns tested the lows. Now 1700 looks in play on the 13,500 tick bar. On the daily, Big Pro Bars at 2000 with Rambo patterns at 1500 could wrong-foot the amateurs, and cyclically we are about to put in a pull back to end of trend as the head of an inverted head and shoulders. On the 24/7 chart, Big Pro Bars into the lows with high average trade size and blue Professional bars at a previous low. Ethereum just needs to show strength.
Wrap-up (21:15): We will find out this week whether we test into the lows on the Emini to find the Big Pro Bars we never saw, or whether we gap and go through 7550 Sunday into Monday and this thing gets going. The good thing about markets is you find out quickly whether you are right or wrong. I have had on my mind to do a video on leverage and inflection points, when it is good to pile in and the best way to do that. If you are interested, drop a comment on YouTube and just say yes. Hope your trading is going well, and I am fascinated by what happens next week.
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Every Pro and Am read in this recap comes straight off the charts using my Better Trading Indicators. They show you where the professionals are buying and where the amateurs are getting trapped, so you can follow the pros and fade the amateurs in real time. Get the Better Trading Indicators and put the same edge on your own charts.
