Filing this one from Kauai, packing for Tokyo on Thursday. Emini at 7300 – took profits at 7200 because I cannot sit through this melt-up without Big Pro Bars at the top. We are heading for what could be the long-awaited blow-off, but the signal is not in yet. Forex all in uptrends, Gold signal at the lows, Bitcoin basing for the next leg, Crude in a super uptrend toward 110. This is the 3 May 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series – every Sunday I break down the week across 15 of the largest futures markets. Here is what I am seeing on the charts heading into the week of 4 May 2026.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini at 7300, took profits at 7200 – still no Blue Professional bars at the highs. This is the signal I have been waiting years for to call the top. It is coming in the next 3-4 weeks, maybe a month or two. Could be a super blow-off to escape velocity first.
- All forex charts in uptrends, USD weak. Mea culpa on the Euro – I was too early last week. Pros loaded Euro lows after the cyclical played out. British Pound, Aussie Dollar same setup. Yen still showing the wrong-way-around Pro flow but in an uptrend.
- Gold signaled long at the lows. Big Pro Bars stepped in – watch for rally through 4700. Bitcoin basing 78-80K, may be ready for the next big leg. Crude in a super uptrend, expecting test of 110 before a real top forms.
Macro Setup This Week
The Emini melt-up continues with the seasonal tailwind still in play. USD weakness driving the forex bid. Crude up at 110-ish on Middle East news flow. Bitcoin and Ethereum building bases for the next leg. The Pro flow read is consistent: no Big Pro Bars at the index highs (continuation), Pros loading commodity and FX lows (continuation). Everything points to one more push before the real reversal.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: At 7300, Heading for the Blow-Off
At 7300.75 – got there by three-quarters of a point. The prior 7200 high was crested by half a point before weakening. I took profits just under 7200. Cannot sit through this melt-up because we have not seen Blue Professional up bars at the highs – the signal I have been looking for years to end this uptrend. It is coming in the next 3-4 weeks, maybe a month or two. ETF charts at the moment show RAMBO patterns making new highs, amateur up bars at the highs, no Pros – and the futures show none of that either. Professionals active in the most liquid markets and the Emini is THE most important chart. Daily: nothing going on – no amateur up bars, no Blue Professional up bars, no signs of weakness. Overshot resistance on the lowest time frame, heading up to make the cyclical cross. 135-minute and 45-minute: exhaustion buy with bearish divergence (nice, not on the zero line) but Blue Professional bars nowhere to be seen. Trailing stop miles away. 15-minute: Blue Professional bars starting to come in, that momentum pattern was quite a lot of selling. Above resistance on the highest time frame. 13,500 tick: last week we bounced off exhaustion sells with no Pros, trailing stop held. Bit of profit-taking by Pros up here this week but background not super high average trade size. Blue box around blue bar at extreme low, signal but did not run. Above the prior highs, exhaustion sell now – but on this leg up we did NOT see exhaustion buy. That is earnings-driven taking profits and getting out, almost a short-covering rally in reverse. Trailing stops getting hit on the way down, crashing out. Too early. We will bounce off this and come back through 7300, then put in the exhaustion buy pattern. Looking for the cyclical support on the intermediate time frame to come in Sunday into Monday. Going up first part of this week. Trade these setups with the indicators I use on the charts: Better Trading Indicators. More analysis in the Emini Trading archive.
6E – Euro Futures: Mea Culpa, But Still in an Uptrend
Mea culpa on the forex – last week I was gung-ho on the Euro and too early. We had a signal at the end of last week but cyclically had not played itself out. I made good money on forex this week so I am happy, but the call was wrong. Below support on the highest time frame, pullback to end of trend had to play out down here first. Once played out, the price exhaustion at the lows can take off. RAMBO patterns – amateurs getting short – then bang, Blue Professional bars and Big Pro Bars step in, exhaustion buy gets the move going. Stair-step trade. Still in an uptrend on the Euro.
6B – British Pound Futures: Sickle Support Held
Same as Euro. End of last week put in cyclical support that looked good but had to test. Went through resistance, came back to test, bounced straight off the support. Big Pro Bars coming in last week, RAMBO patterns wrong-footed, blue Professional bar steps in, break into an uptrend, exhaustion buy gets the move going. No Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. Now back into 1.356 zone – watch for this area to catch and then head back above the recent highs.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Bounced Off Support, Uptrend
Same setup as Pound. Bounced off support cleanly on the highest time frame, Blue Professional bars at the lows. Big things happen at triples – background red, break into uptrend, off we go. Blue Professional bars on the retrace, RAMBO patterns at amateurs wrong-footed. Pushed 71 even and took off. USD weak, all forex in uptrends.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Signal Worked, Now Watch the Retrace
Last week we were short into the move. Blue Professional bars on the intermediate, then a cluster down at the lows: background blue, blue bars, blue boxes – Pros at new lows with super high average trade size. Got our signal, off to the races. No Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs – we ran too fast with RAMBO patterns at the highs. Weakened. Watch for Blue Professional bars to step in again – the Pros want this thing higher.
ZN – 10-Year Notes Futures: Pros on the Retrace
Junky last week but did have a signal that turned out nicely. Blue Professional bars are coming on the retrace, not on the way down. Watch for this support level to break for continuation down. Better Sine Wave at the lows broken significant support on the highest time frame – need a pullback to end of trend resistance on the highest time frame, then play out to the downside.
GC – Gold Futures: Signal Long at the Lows
Lots of shorting signals into the highs at 4900 – Blue Professional bars at the highs got us short. End of last week we were in a downtrend on Gold and kept going. This week, bang – Blue Professional bars at the lows. It holds and we get a signal long with Blue Professional bars coming in. Watch for Gold to rally through 4700 this week.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Basing 78-80K, Ready for the Next Leg?
Have we been basing around 72-78K? Wondering if we are ready for the next big leg. Three weeks ago Blue Professional bars came in anxious – bought everything in the stack and Bitcoin went for the upside. Technical profit-taking, Pros got in on the retrace, amateurs wrong-footed in squeeze patterns, break into uptrend, another signal. The Blue Professional bars here are not on the way up – they are on the way down. We are holding in that area. If 79.5K breaks early next week, Bitcoin goes for a real spin. Under resistance on the highest time frame, probably need to make support on the intermediate.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Uptrend Holding at 2250
Same setup as Bitcoin. Pros bought everything on the way down and pumped into it on the way up – that was at 2200. Said we were still in an uptrend on Ethereum because no Blue Professional bars taking profits at the highs. Pros took profits after the fact and stepped back in. Exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, Blue Professional bars in, holds at 2250. Break into uptrend. Watch for Ethereum to test highs and beyond this week.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Super Uptrend, Testing 110
Most important thing – Crude is in a super big uptrend. Held down at 80, broke into an uptrend, bars turn red, nice signs of strength. Big long bar at resistance on the highest time frame. Still need to make pullback to end of trend – even with this little weakness, will be caught by cyclical support and that will take us to test 110 in terms of sine wave patterns. Big Pro Bars came in at 90, that whole area held. Little technical profit-taking but kept rolling up to 112. Now coming back up through 100 with Blue Professional bars on the retrace. Sickle support on the highest time frame likely to come in and test back to 110 with extreme Big Pro Bars and exhaustion buy – that might be an important top in Crude for a bit. Suggests initial bad news out of the Middle East ends with good news later this week, topping out the market.
Pattern of the Week: When the Signal Was Too Early
Mea culpa moment this week on the Euro. Last week I was gung-ho on the long side based on the end-of-week signal. The call was wrong – not because the read was wrong, but because the cyclical pattern had not played out yet. The Euro was below support on the highest time frame, and the pullback to end of trend down at the lows had to complete first. When the cyclical pattern completes, the price exhaustion can take off. The takeaway: a signal in isolation is not enough. The signal has to align with the cyclical pattern on the highest time frame. When they conflict, the higher time frame wins every time. Read more on this approach in Follow the Pros, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 4 May 2026
Emini up first half of the week heading toward the cyclical support print. Cyclical support comes in Sunday into Monday, supported by a bullish divergence and Blue Professional bars at the lows – then we head back up. Forex continuation. Gold rally through 4700. Bitcoin watch for 79.5K break. Crude test of 110 for potential top. Off to Tokyo on Thursday – will keep the videos coming.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Saturday 2 May 2026, 10:54 PM Chicago time. Love doing these weekend videos – each week has a different personality. Settling down, going through the same charts week after week, judging what happened and what is going to happen. Good practice. Hope you get as much out of it as I do.
Emini Daily (01:00): At 7300.75. Last big high was 7200, crested by half a point, weakened, now 7300.75. I took my profits just under 7200, happy with that. Cannot sit through this melt-up because we have not seen Blue Professional up bars at the highs. Eventually this is the signal I have been looking for years to end this uptrend – scary because it is likely to happen in the next 3-4 weeks, maybe a month or two. ETF charts show RAMBO patterns making new highs, amateur up bars at new highs – but the futures show none of that. No amateur up bars, no Blue Professional bars at highs. Professionals active in the most liquid markets – futures, and for indices the Emini. Most important chart. Heading to a super blow-off, reach escape velocity. Before then, cyclical turn on the intermediate time frame to come. Daily Better Pro Am: nothing going on. No amateur up bars, no Blue Professional up bars, no signs of weakness. Did not quite make exhaustion pattern on Better Momentum last time but on all other indices and the day-and-night session, we did get exhaustion. Cyclically due for weakness but needs everything else – Blue Professional up bars at highs taking profits. At some point the cyclical support on the highest time frame will come in. Wonder if this rockets in the next week. The weakness after will cause that highest time frame support.
Emini 135-Minute (04:02): Exhaustion buy with bearish divergence comes in here, nice, not on the zero line – nice pattern. Blue Professional bars nowhere to be seen. Cracked through the trailing stop. Trailing stop miles away in the uptrend. Still in an uptrend.
Emini 45-Minute (04:33): Again nothing. Stop miles away, no Blue Professional bars in sight. Exhaustion buy bearish divergence, RAMBO patterns, little weakness, amateur down bars into the sequence, raced away to new highs.
Emini 15-Minute (04:50): Last couple of weeks held, weakness, Blue Professional bars on the dip. Held, RAMBO patterns, weakness, got going. Blue Professional bars starting to come in. Momentum pattern was quite a lot of selling. Still above resistance on the highest time frame. Big trending moves like this usually see pullback to end of trend on the highest time frame. Big read on the downside. Will get a little weakness then caught by cyclical support on the 15-minute. In terms of cyclical exhaustion, gone pullback to end of trend on the intermediate, lowest time frame again, another little one. Eking out. Definitely reached price exhaustion but got to come down, find support on the highest time frame, bounce.
Emini 13,500 Tick (06:06): Last week we bounced off exhaustion sells with no Blue Professional bars. 15-minute showed them but technical support on the trailing stop on Better Pro Am held us through. Bit of profit-taking by Pros up to here this week. Came with exhaustion pattern but not background blue – not super high average trade size. Weakness comes, Blue Professional bars step in again. Blue box around blue bar at extreme low. Signal but did not run anywhere – no Blue Professional bars background blue to support. Got caught by Pros. Another signal long, on the way. Into the highs Blue Professional bars, blue boxes taking profits. Keep creeping higher. Last exhaustion pattern was earlier – now getting exhaustion sell. But on this leg up we did NOT see exhaustion buy. Probably earnings-driven taking profits and getting out, almost a short-covering rally in reverse. Trailing stops getting hit on the way down, crashing out. Too early. Have to bounce off and come back through 7300 then put in exhaustion buy pattern. Would be worried about this if exhaustion pattern up here and more Blue Professional bars – then Pros took profits on the exhaustion psychological breakout at 7300 and now desperately trying to get out, downward momentum. But we have not seen that exhaustion pattern into that leg – this is people getting out on trailing stops too early. At some point that catches. No Blue Professional bars at the lows is what I will be looking for. On Better Sine Wave broke above resistance on intermediate and highest time frame. Still in uptrend even with this weakness – have to put in cyclical support on the intermediate time frame. Will come in Sunday into Monday morning, then bounce. Cyclical cross supported by maybe bullish divergence, Blue Professional bars, RAMBO patterns into the lows if people are wary this weekend and dump it Monday. That energy takes people out of the market – taking profits, getting short – and gives us energy to get back to new highs. Going up the first part of this week.
Euro (09:56): Mea culpa. Last week gung-ho on Euro, had signal end of last week, too early. Made good money on forex this week so happy but bad call – cyclical pattern had not played itself out. Was breakout going at end of last week, looked healthy but below support on the highest time frame. Has to play itself out, running into pullback that has to play out to end of trend down. Cyclically had not played out the sickle energy on the way down. When the pullback to end of trend completes, exhausted in price and cycles. That activity can use to take off. Breaking below at the lows, RAMBO patterns, amateurs getting short. Bang, Blue Professional bars come in. Big Pro Bars already in. Exhaustion buy getting it going, takes off. Little weakness at 1.18, flush patterns. No Blue Professional bars taking profits – Pros on the retrace. Stair-step trade. Still in an uptrend on the Euro.
British Pound (12:05): Same as Euro. End of last week cyclical support looked good but had to test. Went through resistance, came back to test, bounced straight off support. Bounced off resistance on the highest time frame too. Did enough cyclical testing to take off. Big Pro Bars last week testing. RAMBO patterns wrong-footed too early. Amateur down bars, Blue Professional bar steps in, break into uptrend, exhaustion buy gets it going. Now back into 1.356 zone. Watch for this area to catch and head back above recent highs.
Aussie Dollar (13:13): Same as Pound. Week before was weak. Bounced off resistance on the highest time frame, then clean bounce off support. Bang, big things happen at triples, background, break into uptrend. Pros active here, exhaustion sell, Blue Professional bars in. RAMBO patterns, amateurs wrong-footed, came back to zone where Blue Professional bars had been interested. Pushed 71 even and took off. Blue Professional bars only a fraction above the highs – would have liked deeper. All forex in uptrends. USD weak.
Japanese Yen (14:17): Signal from last week, short into the move. Blue Professional bars on the intermediate. Cluster down at the lows – backgrounds blue, blue bars, blue boxes – Pros at new lows, super high average trade size, lining up. Signal, off to the races. No Blue Professional bars taking profits at highs – ran too fast with RAMBO patterns, amateurs at the highs. Weakened. Watch where Blue Professional bars step in again – the Pros want this higher.
10-Year Notes (15:06): Junky last week. Did have signal that was nice. Blue Professional bars on the retrace, not on the way down. Watch for support break for continuation down. Better Sine Wave broken significant support on the highest time frame – thick red line. Need pullback to end of trend, come back up, put in pullback to end of trend resistance on the highest time frame, then play out to the downside.
Gold (15:50): Signal at end of last week. Lots of shorting signals into the highs – 4900, Blue Professional bars at highs, signal short, down. End of last week in a downtrend, kept going until Blue Professional bars come in. Background gray, confirmed downtrend. This week, bang – Blue Professional bars at the lows. Holds and we get a signal with Blue Professional bars coming in. Watch for Gold to rally through 4700 this week.
Bitcoin (16:37): Skipping Silver, not interesting. Cryptos interesting at the moment. Basing around 72-78K. Wondering if ready for the next big leg. Three weeks ago Blue Professional bars came in anxious – bought everything in the stack, went for the upside. Technical profit-taking, Pros in on the retrace, amateurs wrong-footed, squeeze patterns, break into uptrend, another signal. Blue Professional bars – not on the way up, this one on the way up with box at highs taking profits. But this is on the way down and we are holding in that area. Wonder if 79.5K breaks early next week for a real spin on Bitcoin. Under resistance on the highest time frame, probably need to make support on the intermediate.
Ethereum (17:56): Same. Bought everything in the stack on the way down, pumped on the way up. Twenty-two hundred level. Watch the videos – said still in an uptrend because no Blue Professional bars taking profits at highs. They take profits after the fact and step in. Exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, Blue Professional step in, holds at 2250. Break into uptrend. In an uptrend on Ethereum. Wonder if Ethereum has a play this week. Nice support on highest time frame, bars red, uptrend. Get through resistance on low and intermediate, test highs and maybe beyond.
Crude (18:55): Losing my voice. Most important – super big uptrend. Held at 80, broke into uptrend, bars turn red, nice signs of strength. Resistance on the highest time frame – big long bar. Still got to make pullback to end of trend on this time frame. Even with this weakness, caught by cyclical support that will be a pullback taking us to test 110 in terms of sine wave. Big Pro Bars in at 90 got the move going. Was a little confused – did not pick it up at 80 but news-driven, Pros stepped in at 90, that whole area held. Little technical profit-taking up here but rolled to 112, came off. Did not see Blue Professional bars up at highs but seen on the retrace coming up 100. Sickle support at some point in the highest time frame likely to come in – test back to 110 with extreme Big Pro Bars and exhaustion buy. That might be an important top in Crude for a bit. Suggests initial bad news out of Middle East, ends with good news later this week, tops out market.
Wrap (20:28): Packing in Kauai, on a plane to Tokyo Thursday for a couple of weeks. Will try to do videos.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every market section above was called using my Better Trading Indicators – the same Big Pro Bars, RAMBO patterns, exhaustion buy and exhaustion sell signals you see in the video. They work on TradeStation, NinjaTrader, MultiCharts and TradingView. See the Better Trading Indicators and trade Monday with a plan.
