Iran ceasefire reports rolled out of the White House late Saturday, but the futures markets have not agreed on whether the war is actually over. Crude can’t confirm it. Natural Gas already has. This is the 24 May 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, walking through fifteen of the largest futures markets ahead of a shortened Memorial Day week.
TL;DR – This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini uptrend intact. Zero Big Pro Bars selling the highs across daily, 135-minute, 45-minute, 15-minute or 13,500 tick bar charts. Cyclical resistance is real but unconfirmed. Bias stays long until Pros show up at the highs.
- Crude vs Natural Gas split the war thesis. Nat Gas topped at 3.30 with clean Pro distribution and no Pros at the lows – war-over signal. Crude has Big Pro Bars at both 104 highs AND 97 lows in the same week – no conviction either way. Tuesday’s open is the tell.
- Pros reload Corn and Soybeans. Both ag markets gave a second-chance long after Sunday’s gap-up Rambo pattern ran out of puff and filled the gap. Stair step trades now building with Pro bars on the retrace. Break above 1208 on soybeans confirms.
Macro Setup This Week
Memorial Day shuts the US session Monday. The macro story is whether the reported Iran ceasefire holds and the war ends, which would normally drag Crude and Natural Gas lower together while Equities push higher. Right now we have only two of those three signals firing. Equities are still bullish and Natural Gas has already priced the war-over outcome, but Crude is sending mixed messages with Big Pro Bars at both the highs and the lows of the same range. Until those energy charts agree, position sizing has to respect the headline risk on Sunday night into Tuesday’s open.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES – Emini S&P 500 Futures: Uptrend Intact Across Every Timeframe
Daily chart: No blue Professional up bars and no Amateur up bars into these highs. We have cyclical resistance on the intermediate timeframe and an end-of-trend signal on the lowest timeframe, but the resistance is unconfirmed – no exhaustion sell, no bearish divergence, no Big Pro Bars distributing. Until Pros show up at the highs, the uptrend continues. 135-minute: Same story. Exhaustion buy got the move going out of the channel, no Pros at the highs, just cyclical pullback. 45-minute: Blue Professional bars finally showed up – but on the retrace down, not the move up. Pros bought the weakness, market strengthened, trailing stop broken, Signal Long confirmed. 15-minute: Cleanest version. Gap down Friday week prior, soft Monday-Tuesday, blue Professional bars at the lows, blue boxes hold, breakout above the channel, Rambo pattern closes the prior Friday gap. 13,500 tick bar: Wanted to see Big Pro Bars at the low near 7,360 to mirror the distribution at the high, instead got a squeeze – cyclical and price turning points stacked – and the breakout fired into the uptrend. Same conclusion across every timeframe: until Pros sell the highs, this is a long market. The setup we want to see, and the indicators that catch it, are walked through inside the Better Trading Indicators suite.
6E – Euro Futures: Still in the Downtrend
The Euro topped two weeks ago – Professional bars at the high, exhaustion buy bearish divergence, Big Pro Bars distributing, downtrend confirmed. This week: no Big Pro Bars at the lows and no exhaustion sell. Some Professional bars at the lows could fuel a retrace back up, but without a proper low marked by Big Pro Bars, no reason to buy here. Downtrend intact.
6B – British Pound Futures: Watching 1.34 for Continuation
Same structure as the Euro. No Big Pro Bars on the retrace from last week into this week. Professional bars stepped in at 1.3450 with an exhaustion buy bearish divergence flush. Break back below 1.34 and the downtrend continues. Until Big Pro Bars show up at the lows, this is not a bottom.
6A – Aussie Dollar Futures: Stair Step Setting Up
Big Pro Bars came in earlier in the move, market tested down, now bouncing off Rambo patterns at the lows. Background turned red. Blue Professional bars stepping in on a stair step trade. Would have been more convincing to see Big Pro Bars on the most recent leg down – that pattern is missing. Watching 0.7150 for a break back up to confirm.
6J – Japanese Yen Futures: Big Pro Bars Step in at the Lows
Interesting at the lows. Yen ran to the downside through the week and then on Friday, Big Pro Bars stepped in just under 0.63. Hasn’t signaled yet, no exhaustion sell, but the accumulation pattern is there. Watch for the turn this week.
ZN – 10-Year Treasury Notes: Exhaustion Sell Bullish Divergence
Last week we flagged the 10-Year setup – Big Pro Bars on the prior weakness, ignored the Signal Short because it came after the Big Pro Bars on the way down. This week the market tested those lows, put in an exhaustion sell bullish divergence, and held. Background flipped red. Watching for continuation into a proper uptrend in bonds.
GC – Gold Futures: Big Pro Bars at the Lows – Watch 4600
Similar accumulation pattern. Big Pro Bars stepped in at the lows. Exhaustion buys under the lip with Amateur bars testing down into the lows. Not signaled yet. Break above 4600 this week and gold is back in play to the long side.
SI – Silver Futures: Still Downtrending
Profit taking at the highs near 88, Big Pro Bars into those highs, downtrend confirmed. No blue Professional bars catching the lows. We do have exhaustion sell bullish divergence with bounces off Rambo patterns – Amateurs active at the lows, which means a retrace is possible but the Pros have not signed off. Wait for the Pros to step in before going long.
BTC – Bitcoin Futures: Heading Down From 82K
Bitcoin took profits at the end of last week at $82K with Big Pro Bars and the background in blue, exhaustion sell got the move going. Downtrend was not over because blue Professional bars never stepped in at the lows – they came in on the retrace. Market signaled down again, blue Professional bars now appearing on the new leg down. Still in a downtrend until we see clean accumulation at a new low.
ETH – Ethereum Futures: Bullish Divergence – Watch 2200
Slightly better setup than Bitcoin. A few Big Pro Bars this week and multiple exhaustion sell bullish divergences. Break back above 2200 on Ethereum and the uptrend resumes. Until then, sit on hands.
CL – Crude Oil Futures: Pros Conflicted – War Not Confirmed Over
The most important chart of the week and the most ambiguous. Two weeks ago Big Pro Bars stepped in and pumped Crude on news the war was not over. Into the highs at 104 we got the nice Pro distribution pattern. Then Pros bought again at 97 and drove it back up, only to sell back down with a Signal Short. This could be a pump and dump – Pros forcing the move higher to get short – but those setups usually break the prior low and sink fast. Crude came back up again and again. Background gray, Signal Short active. If the White House confirms the ceasefire, this could drop through 96 and 94 and accelerate. The Big Pro Bars at 97 are what kill the conviction in a clean short here.
NG – Natural Gas Futures: Topped at 3.30 – War-Over Signal
Cleaner pattern than Crude. Pros caught it at 3.00, forced it all the way up, distributed at the 3.30 highs, sold on the retrace, downtrend confirmed. Exhaustion sells down here but no blue Professional bars stepping in at the lows. Natural Gas is on the way down and that is the positive news for an end to the war. If Crude follows, the thesis confirms.
HG – Copper Futures: Squeeze Breakout to Uptrend
Copper also starting to bottom. Profit taking earlier with a Signal Short, but Big Pro Bars stepped in again at 6.30. Test, test, squeeze patterns stack, breakout to the upside. Background flipped, uptrend confirmed.
ZC – Corn Futures: Second Chance Long Setup
Last week’s setup with Big Pro Bars at the lows and exhaustion sell bullish divergence triggered on Sunday’s open with a gap up. The move ran too fast, Rambo patterns into the highs, then retraced and closed the gap. Pros stepped back in on the retrace with stair step trades. This is a textbook second-chance long entry.
ZS – Soybean Futures: Stair Step After Gap Fill
Same setup as corn. Big Pro Bars at the lows, gap up Sunday, Amateurs pushed it with a Rambo pattern, weakness back to the breakout, blue Professional bars step in, stair step trade in play. Break above 1208 on soybeans for continuation.
ZW – Wheat Futures: Still in Downtrend
Wheat topped at 680 with Big Pro Bars and Pros got in again on the retrace. Downtrend intact. A couple of small blue Professional bars showed up but not on the down legs. No exhaustion sell at the lows. Corn and soybeans are doing the work this week – wheat is not invited yet.
Pattern of the Week: Correlated Markets Disagreeing on the Same News
Crude and Natural Gas usually move together on Middle East war headlines. This week they diverged. Natural Gas printed the textbook end-of-war pattern – Big Pro Bars distributing at the 3.30 highs, no Pros at the lows, clean downtrend. Crude printed Big Pro Bars at BOTH the 104 highs and the 97 lows in the same range, which is the Pros saying they have no edge yet on which direction this resolves. When two correlated markets price the same headline differently, the one with the cleaner Pro/Am pattern is usually right. Want to see what the Pros are doing in real time? Follow the Pros explains how average trade size data exposes professional positioning before the move.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 25 May 2026
Memorial Day Monday is a US holiday – markets are not properly open until Tuesday. Tuesday’s open is the high-information event of the week. If the White House confirms the Iran ceasefire over the long weekend, Crude has to confirm what Natural Gas has already priced. Equities should accelerate higher if the war ends and the Emini already has the structural setup for it. Watching Crude through 96-94, Soybeans above 1208, Gold above 4600, and Ethereum above 2200 as the key triggers.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Sunday 24 May 2026, just gone 1:19 AM Chicago time. Time for another weekend futures market recap. We will go through fifteen of the largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts. Monday is Memorial Day so the markets will not be open properly until Tuesday. And of course, being the weekend, we are wondering whether the war with Iran is over. Potentially there is some good news coming out of the White House that they have reached agreement, but I cannot see it definitively in the charts yet. We will roll through the Crude chart, the Natural Gas chart, the equities chart – but we do not have a consistent answer across those charts yet, which is a shame. Maybe it is going to take a few days and crystallize during the trade this week.
Personal Update – Japan (01:03): On a personal note, we are back in Australia which is great although the weather is not terrific, having spent two weeks in Japan on our way back from Hawaii. The trip to Japan was just delightful. We spent the last few days in a mountain ryokan – got a bullet train back from Kyoto, glimpsed Mount Fuji on the way which was terrific, bought the obligatory bento box on the bullet train platform, changed trains to another bullet train in Tokyo going west up into the mountains, and then took a bus to a mountain ryokan which had an onsen on site. The food in this ryokan was just unbelievable. Last evening’s meal had a whole range of starters and two little meals cooking in the trays in front of you, with burners on. Breakfast was extraordinary – an incredible amount of work gone into preparing it. We were there for three nights sleeping on futons, wearing yukatas around the property. Kimonos are silk for special occasions; yukatas are cotton for everyday walking around. That was the last three days in Japan before flying out.
Emini Daily Chart (03:02): Good news again this week – no blue Professional up bars or Amateur up bars into these highs. Nothing saying the uptrend is over. We have reached cyclical resistance on the daily chart on the intermediate timeframe. We overshot resistance on the lowest timeframe and have been caught by resistance on the intermediate timeframe, an end-of-trend signal. Potentially this is a left shoulder being made by equities and the head of a head and shoulders move, but it needs to come with some momentum or average trade size pattern – some exhaustion move. We do not have it. No blow-off, no exhaustion buy bearish divergence pattern. No Amateur or Professional up bars showing either Pros taking profits or Amateurs leading the way and getting it wrong. Nothing on the daily chart signifying weakness, which means we are potentially going to cruise through and end up with another exhaustion pattern larger than this down movement and above this last exhaustion high. Is that going to be the good news that comes out of the Middle East and all of a sudden the war is over and this thing takes off? Potentially.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (04:12): Exactly three 135-minute bars in a day session of the Emini. My view is this is exhaustion buy getting the move going, breaking us out of this channel. We have to see another one of those patterns with blue Professional up bars before this thing is over. Again, no blue Professional up bars and no Amateur up bars into that move. The cyclical pattern is giving a bit of trouble here – end of trends on the lowest timeframe syncing up with an end of trend on the highest timeframe – but it does not come with any other confirming patterns.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (04:50): Got some blue Professional bars finally, but they did not happen on the way up. They happened on the way down. During this week’s activity we had a little weakness and blue Professional bars stepped in. Got a blue box on that extreme showing the Pros are active and buying back in. Market strengthened, went through the trailing stop, and we got a Signal Long. No blue Professional bars into these highs taking profits – the Pros were active on the retrace. That is important. Still in an uptrend and this thing is going to burst higher.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (05:25): We can see that activity in more detail. The beginnings and ends of the week are marked by solid yellow vertical lines. A little weakness, gap down on Friday’s trade, then softened Monday and Tuesday with blue Professional bars at the lows. Blue Professional bars on the lows, the blue boxes, that whole area held, we broke above it, trailing stop got broken. A little weakness, then we confirmed when we broke back above that channel. Signal sign of strength came with a confirmed Signal into an uptrend. Rambo patterns to close the gap we had on that Friday’s trade last week. Weakened from there – waiting for blue Professional bars to step in with this weakness and then we trail the stop up. Looking good for continuation. Cyclically we are running out of puff. Better Sine Wave on this timeframe just put in pullback to end of trend on the highest timeframe. Cyclically finding resistance, but it has to come with blue Professional bars into that move or an exhaustion buy. Still do not have it. Equities still in an uptrend.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (06:37): It would have been great if we had the same type patterns on the 13,500 tick bar chart. Last weekend’s video we could see this short activity lining up – Big Pro Bars into those highs, Pro boxes at the highs, Signal Short, ran to the downside. What I would have liked to have seen down here is Big Pro Bars picking up at 7,360. Did not get that – got a whole bunch of squeeze patterns coming in, where price and cyclical turning points are really close together. Cyclically we had support on the highest timeframe lining up with support on the lower and intermediate timeframes. All that congestion ended up generating these squeeze patterns. Squeezed out of that into an uptrend, background turned red, blue Professional bars bought the breakout, exhaustion buy got the move going, and we are in an uptrend on the 13,500 tick bar chart. Would have been great to have blue Professional bars into the lows, Pro boxes mirroring the new Big Pro Bars at the lowest exhaustion patterns, but that is not what happened. We just tightened into a squeeze and busted out to those highs. Still in an uptrend. Got to get through this resistance and that is when we will start to generate the exhaustion pattern and Big Pro Bars coming in when we come back above those.
Euro Futures (08:17): Couple of weeks ago the Euro topped out – Professional bars at the high, exhaustion buy bearish divergence, Big Pro Bars came in here, sold it down, downtrend confirmed. They have not come back in. No exhaustion sell down here. No Big Pro Bars at the lows. Might get a little trade backup because we have Professional bars at those lows, but it is not a proper low being made with the Big Pro Bars. That is what we are looking for.
British Pound Futures (08:45): Same thing at the lows this week. No Big Pro Bars last week into this week on the retrace. This is where the Professional bars stepped in at 1.3450. We have exhaustion buy bearish divergence flush. All we need is to break back below 1.34 and we get a continuation of the downtrend until we see the Big Pro Bars at the lows. Still in a downtrend.
Aussie Dollar Futures (09:11): Big Pro Bars came in at this earlier point. Tested down and bouncing off Rambo patterns at the lows. I would not be jumping into the Aussie dollar until all of those forex charts roll around. Would have liked to have seen this pattern on this leg down – that would be more convincing. Background did turn red. Got a stair step trade with blue Professional bars stepping in. Watching for a break back up through 0.7150.
Japanese Yen Futures (09:41): Interesting at the lows. Ran to the downside and finally on Friday, Big Pro Bars stepped in just under 0.63. Has not signaled yet, not an exhaustion sell, but Big Pro Bars have come in. Watching for the turn this week.
10-Year Bonds (10:01): Last weekend’s video we talked about the 10-Year setting up because into last week’s activity, marked by the vertical yellow line, we had all of these Big Pro Bars happening. We traded down through those even more – would not look at that Signal Short because it is after the Big Pro Bars on the way down. Testing at this point during this week’s activity and now we put in exhaustion sell bullish divergence and starting to hold. Background turned red. Watching for continuation into a proper uptrending move in the 10-Years.
Gold Futures (10:37): Similar accumulation pattern. Into those lows, Big Pro Bars stepped in. Exhaustion buys under the lip with Amateur bars testing down into those lows. Not signaled yet but watching for a break through 4600 on gold this week.
Silver Futures (10:54): Silver still in a downtrend. A lot of profit taking up here, Big Pro Bars into those highs at 88, downtrend confirmed. No blue Professional bars catching the lows. We have exhaustion sell bullish divergence and bouncing off Rambo patterns – Amateurs active at the lows. Could have a retrace until the Pros step in and push it down again.
Bitcoin Futures (11:20): Bitcoin struggling. Took profits end of last week at $82K – Big Pro Bars, background in blue, exhaustion sell got the move going. Downtrend not over because no blue Professional bars stepping in at the lows. They came in on the retrace, then the market signaled down again. Heading down with some blue Professional bars here but need to see nicer activity with the background in blue. Still in a downtrend.
Ethereum Futures (11:51): Maybe a little better news here. This week got Big Pro Bars, not many but a little signal. Have exhaustion sell bullish divergence, another one here and here. Watching for a break back above 2200 on Ethereum for an uptrend.
Crude Oil Futures (12:08): Is Crude doing anything to suggest the war is over? Two weeks ago Big Pro Bars stepped in and bought this market up – news driven, saying the war was not over. Into those highs we did have the nice pattern – Big Pro Bars at 104. But then they picked it up at 97 and drove it back up, then down, and we got a Signal. What is going on? The blue Professional bars into those highs we could see as taking profits at 104, then we get the weakness. Is this a killing fields pattern where they take it, drive it up, and use that activity to get short and the market sells off? Potentially – but usually when that happens, the market drops through that low and sinks fast. We came back up again and again. Background gray, Signal Short. If we get good news out of the White House, maybe this just drops like a stone and we get through 96, 94. It is just odd – this was nice, this not so convincing. If we had this pattern followed by that pattern that would be nice for a downtrend, but because we had all those Big Pro Bars at 97 it is not as convincing.
Natural Gas Futures (13:33): Shows a better pattern. They caught it at 3.00, forced it all the way up, then at the 3.30 highs they got out, got out on the retrace as well, and we are in a downtrend. Exhaustion sells down here but no blue Professional bars stepping in. Natural Gas is on the way down and that is showing positive news for an end to the war.
Copper Futures (13:57): Copper also starting to bottom this week. Profit taking earlier and a Signal Short, but then Big Pro Bars stepped in again at 6.30. Test, test, squeeze patterns, bust out into an uptrend.
Corn Futures (14:16): Second chance. Last weekend we talked about the Big Pro Bars stepping in at the lows, exhaustion sell bullish divergence. On Sunday’s open it gapped up and raced away, got ahead of itself with Rambo patterns into the highs, came back to the breakout area, closed the gap. Pros came back in with stair step trades. Another chance at a long trade on corn.
Soybean Futures (14:49): Similar setup. Big Pro Bars at the lows, gap up Sunday, Amateurs pushing it with a Rambo pattern. We weakened, blue Professional bars stepped in, stair step trade in play. Watching for a break above 1208 on soybeans for continuation.
Wheat Futures (15:13): Topped at 680, all the Big Pro Bars stepped in here, got in on the retrace as well. Still in the downtrend. Got a couple of small blue Professional bars but they did not come in on the way down. No exhaustion sell. Still a downtrend on wheat. Corn and soybeans doing OK, wheat is not.
Outro: Monday is Memorial Day so we have time off until Tuesday. If we get news out of the White House Sunday night into Monday, things could get very exciting. Good luck with your trading this week.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every Pro/Am call in this recap is read directly off the same indicators on my screen – Better Pro Am, Better Sine Wave, Better Momentum. The blue Professional bars, the Big Pro Bars at the highs and lows, the exhaustion buys and sells, the squeeze setups and Rambo patterns – they are all generated by the indicator suite I use live every day. If you want to see what the Pros are doing in your own charts, take a look at Better Trading Indicators.
