A quiet, coiled week on the Emini, and the tell was who was missing. Amateur bars printed at the highs, Rambo patterns stacked up across the intraday timeframes, and not one Blue Professional bar took profits into the move. This is the 16 August 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, covering the 15 largest futures markets and the Professional versus Amateur order flow behind them.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: 7738 is the line. The Rambo sequence low on both the 135-minute and 45-minute charts sits at 7738. Break it and serious volume comes in. Hold it and the Pros step in for another run at 7850.
- Euro: Big Pro Bars sold 1.16. An exhaustion sell with heavy Professional activity at 1.16 and no exhaustion buy underneath it. If the Euro turns here, the Aussie long is next in line.
- Japanese Yen: the intervention failed. Blue Professional bars are showing on the retrace, not at the lows. Below 62.80 the Yen breaks down again despite the US government stepping in.
Macro Setup This Week
Very little happened in the tape last week. Daily ranges were small, the absolute movement was small, and the Emini has coiled up right underneath resistance on the highest timeframe. Coiled markets do not stay coiled, so the base case into the week of 17 August 2026 is range expansion, and the Rambo patterns at the highs argue that the expansion is more likely to come to the downside first.
Underneath the index, the currency picture is the one to watch. Big Pro Bars hit the Euro at 1.16 with an exhaustion sell, which puts a question mark over the broader US Dollar weakness trade. The Japanese Yen is the cleanest read of all: the US government intervened, and the Professionals declined to follow. Crude is still hostage to Strait of Hormuz headlines, and the Pros have not come back to defend it on the way down.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: Running Out of Puff at Resistance
The Emini is still in an uptrend, but it ran out of puff into resistance and the buying that got it there was the wrong kind. Daily chart: an Amateur bar printed on Friday at a cyclical resistance point. No exhaustion play, no Professionals taking advantage, just amateurs active at the highs. 135-minute: those same highs print as Rambo patterns, a potential reversal of an amateur breakout. The important level in a Rambo pattern is the low of the amateur sequence, and that low is 7738. Break 7738 and serious volume comes in. 45-minute: same 7738 low, and the exhaustion sells a few days back are actually fuel - that selling has to cover or chase if price moves up. 15-minute: background still red, sequence low at 7764, waiting for Blue Professional bars on a retrace so Better Trading Indicators can stair step the trailing stop up. 13,500 tick bar: the weakest of the set - Blue Professional bars took profits at the highs and the chart has broken into a downtrend, with 7750 the retrace zone to watch and 7600 the level the Pros will defend, because that is where they bought the breakout.
6E - Euro Futures: Big Pro Bars Exhaustion Sell at 1.16
The Euro produced the cleanest Professional footprint of the week: a whole cluster of Big Pro Bars arriving at 1.16 with an exhaustion sell. That is real selling into strength, and there is no exhaustion buy underneath it to argue the other side. Big Pro Bars at a turning point are the highest quality signal on the chart, so this one carries weight. It also matters beyond the Euro. If the US Dollar stops weakening here, the Aussie long has to be managed carefully - there has been no Professional profit taking pattern on the Aussie yet, but the Euro usually leads.
SI - Silver Futures: Amateur Bars at 66, Crack 63 for the Downtrend
Silver ran into the highs this week at 66 and 67 and did it with Amateur bars and a bearish divergence. Last week the highs came with Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion buy, so the Professionals were in early and the amateurs have been carrying the move since. The level that confirms it is 63. Crack 63 and it says the Big Pro Bars were taking profits through this whole sequence, and Silver rolls into a downtrending sequence. Until then it is a top forming, not a top confirmed.
GC - Gold Futures: Pros Still Defending 4300
Gold is not as clear cut as Silver. It is maxed out with Rambo patterns at the highs and there were Blue Professional bars taking profits into the move, but then Big Pro Bars stepped in with an exhaustion sell at 4300 and kept buying that retrace. That is the key distinction: they have not taken profits yet. One Blue Professional bar at the end of the week, but no Big Pro Bars distributing. The interesting question into next week is divergence - does Silver weaken while Gold keeps making highs.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: Squeeze Setup and 62.5K Support
Bitcoin maxed out at 65K last week, Big Pro Bars stepped in and the Signal Short fired, and they have not come back in since. The area that matters now is 62.5K, which is where the Professionals came in last time and the level they need to hold. Squeeze patterns are stacking up, which means a big trending move is loading. The scenario worth planning for is a break lower that runs to 60K or 61K before Blue Professional bars step in. Bitcoin could fall out of bed this week and get interesting on the downside.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Pros Fade the Intervention
Everybody is interested in the Japanese Yen after the US government intervened, and the order flow says the rescue is not working. The Blue Professional bars are showing up on the retrace, not down at the lows where you would want to see them if this were a real bottom. Exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and Blue Professional up bars in that configuration is the wrong way around. Watch 62.80. Break it and the Yen breaks down again, government intervention or not. The Yen is not doing what it is supposed to do.
CL - Crude Futures: No Pros on the Way Down, Watch 80
Not much is happening in Crude, but it stays on the watchlist because of the Strait of Hormuz. The last Big Pro Bars were at 86 and price sold down from there. The bounce came off nothing - no Blue Professional bars at the lows at all - and it has run straight into Rambo patterns at 84. So 80 is the level. Break 80 and there is no Professional bid underneath, because the Pros who bought on the way up have not come back to rescue it on the way down. That is potentially good news for the end of the war, though that call has been on the table for months now.
NG - Natural Gas Futures: Big Pro Bars Top It Out at 2.80
Natural Gas has topped out and the pattern is textbook. At 2.80 there was an exhaustion buy, a bearish divergence, flush patterns and Blue Professional bars with blue bars at the highs, then a Big Pro Bar right at the turn. Only one or two of them at that point, but it was enough - the chart broke into a downtrend and is seemingly continuing lower. This is the cleanest completed reversal on the board this week, and there is no reason yet to fade it.
ZW - Wheat Futures: Big Pro Bars Step In at 648
Wheat is the mirror image of Natural Gas and the one clean uptrend on the board. It bottomed this week with an exhaustion buy and a bullish divergence, sold back down, and then the Big Pro Bars stepped in on the retrace at 648. Note that they did not buy the absolute low - they waited for the pullback, which is exactly the behaviour the Better Pro Am stair step trailing stop is built to follow. Wheat has rallied from there and is in an uptrend.
Pattern of the Week: The Rambo Pattern and Its Trigger Level
Rambo stands for potential reversal of an amateur breakout or breakdown. It does not mean the trend is over. Sometimes it resolves into a change of trend, but often it just means the move is being led by the amateurs and is therefore suspect - a bit of weakness, then the Professionals step in and it carries on. The way to trade it is not the pattern itself, it is the trigger level: the low of the amateur sequence in an up move, or the high of the sequence in a down move. On the Emini that level is 7738 on two separate timeframes, which is why it matters. Above it, this is just a market running out of puff. Below it, serious volume comes in and the Rambo pattern is in play. That is the whole discipline behind following the Professionals: wait for the level, not the story.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 17 August 2026
The Emini has coiled up with very small ranges, so range expansion is likely this week and the Rambo patterns argue for the downside going first. First job is checking the news announcements due. The Euro chart is the other one that matters: if 1.16 is a real turn, the Aussie long needs managing. And Bitcoin looks capable of falling out of bed here, which would get interesting on the downside until the Professionals step in.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Sunday the 16th of August 2026, just gone 7:59 AM Chicago time. I do hope you are doing well. It is the weekend, so it is time for another weekend futures market recap. We will go through 15 of the largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts.
France and Beaune (00:19): Apologies, the video is coming out a little bit late this Sunday, we are still getting used to the time zone. We are here in France, and it takes a while from Australia. Driving south from Queensland to Sydney is a two day affair, then a day and a half on planes to get to Europe, and then we took our time going south from Paris to Avignon where we are at the moment. We are just on the other side of the river from Avignon, in Villeneuve-les-Avignon, the new town of Avignon, which I think still makes it about 1650 if it is the new town. On the way down we stopped at a little town called Beaune, b-e-a-u-n-e, just outside Dijon. If you are into wine, or want to see the Burgundy region, Beaune is the perfect stop off about three and a half hours outside Paris. Normally in France you have to go out to the cellar door at each winery to do tastings, but because this town is the centre of Burgundy you can do all your tastings in the town itself. It is famous for a hospice built in the 1450s, and for the altarpiece there: while you are dying in the hospice you are supposed to look at the last judgment to know whether you are going to heaven or hell. Heaven on one side, hell down the other, and all the little people being judged by Saint Michael on the scales. Around town there are caves where you can taste wines, bistros and bars to sit out in of an evening, fantastic cheeses, they specialise in nougat, and of course any French market has lots of garlic. We stayed at Hotel La Poste, an Art Deco period piece, four star, just gorgeous. Highly recommended as a base if you are heading to that region.
Emini Overview (02:49): Enough of the travel, let us talk about charts. I am only pulling up a few charts today because there is not a lot going on. The story is that we are running out of puff on the Emini, because we are reaching some Rambo patterns. That does not mean the uptrend is over. I think we just settle back until we see the Professionals step in. It was a pretty boring week, we did not move much in terms of daily ranges or absolute movement.
Emini Daily Chart (03:17): On the daily chart we have got an Amateur bar on Friday. That means the amateurs are active at the highs, and when we go down the timeframes it will print as Rambo patterns up there. It is a cyclical resistance point, so it just means we are running out of puff at the moment. There is no exhaustion play here and no Professionals taking advantage, but it could mean a little bit of weakness until the Professionals step in.
Emini 135-Minute Chart (03:43): Here we go, Rambo patterns. Rambo stands for potential reversal of an amateur breakout or breakdown. It does not necessarily mean a change in trend. Sometimes it does result in a change of trend, but it means the move is being led by the amateurs and is therefore a little bit suspect. In this case, because we have not seen Blue Professional bars taking profits, I think we are just going to run out of puff. A few days ago we had exhaustion sells, quite a lot of people selling into this move, and then it bounced up to a cyclical resistance point. The important area in a Rambo pattern is the low or the high of the amateur sequence. Since this Rambo pattern was moving up, the low of the sequence is the important one, and that low is 7738. If we come back down 50 points or so and look like breaking through it, watch out, because that means this is in play. It needs to break that level for serious volume to come in. We could just get a small correction and bounce from there. That is the level I am watching this week: 7738. Background is red, so we are in an uptrend, and we are above trailing support with Professional activity.
Emini 45-Minute Chart (05:21): Quite a lot of people taking profits and selling out here. That tends to create bounces, because all of that activity is either taking profits or getting short at that point on those exhaustion sells, and when it moves the other way they either have to cover or jump back in. Because this move did not top out with an exhaustion pattern, those patterns just mean there is more fuel available to head up. And there are the Rambo patterns again. On this chart the low of the amateur sequence is 7738, the same as the previous chart, which is good. Uptrend, because the background is red. The Blue Professional bars came in a while ago, and we have not seen any Blue Professional bars taking profits up there. We are sitting at resistance on the highest timeframe, so let us wait and see whether 7738 gets broken or whether we bounce around until we have another go.
Emini 15-Minute Chart (06:16): Here we add the solid yellow vertical lines to show the beginnings and ends of the week. Last week was explosive. This week we have not done very much: sold off a little bit, exhaustion sell, bullish divergence and flush patterns sitting underneath the whole thing, and the background is red so we are in an uptrend. The question is whether the Professionals step in now, or let it sink a little and then step in. Blue Professional bars on a retrace, the trailing stop on Better Pro Am stair steps back up to those bars, and then we continue on with the break to the upside. The sequence low here is around 7764. Let us see if we start breaking down Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and where the Blue Professional bars step in.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (07:13): Slightly different story here. Last week there was the breakaway move through 7600 and we got up to 7800. This week we had a little weakness at the start, Blue Professional bars stepped in with an exhaustion sell, blue bars at new lows, we got the Signal Long, a little retrace, stair step up, another Blue Professional bar and away we went. But we got Blue Professional bars taking profits up at the highs and on this retrace as well, and now we have broken into a downtrend on this timeframe. It did not come with an exhaustion buy at those highs, so it is just a technical area where the Blue Professional bars stepped in. Let us see if we get a bit of weakness back into the 7750 region and Blue Professional bars step in again to take out those highs. A little more weakness showing on the 13,500 tick bar chart.
Emini Better Sine Wave (08:15): On Better Sine Wave we talk about breaks and cycling through the timeframes. We broke into an uptrend above resistance on the highest timeframe, then we have to put in our pullback to end of trend. Left shoulder is a pullback to end of trend on the lowest timeframe, where the lines are very light, then a pullback to end of trend on the intermediate timeframe where the lines are a bit thicker, then the pullback to end of trend on the highest timeframe with the very thick lines. So we are cycling through each of those. That gives you a left shoulder, head and right shoulder of a move, and then a second cyclical turn after end of trend: an end of trend on the highest timeframe, one cyclical turn, then two cyclical turns. We have had our trending move and now we are into a cyclical move, and that is the area where changes in trend happen. Resistance on all three timeframes has come together, with the trends already down on the lower two. Drop through 7790 or so and we move into a downtrend on Better Sine Wave. So Better Sine Wave is telling us we are maxed out in terms of cycles. Let us see if we get Professional profit taking, sell off, and then they come in at some point. 7600 is definitely important - that is where they bought into the breakout move, so they are going to defend it. If we come back down to that area this week it is going to be super important. So that is the Emini: still in an uptrend, potentially a bit of weakness ahead because we maxed out with Rambo patterns and Amateur up bars into this move. If we get a sell off with Professionals stepping in on the lower timeframes, that is good, and it means we go for another go at 7850 or so.
Euro (10:36): The other charts I want to show you are the ones with something on them, because there is not a lot going on in terms of Big Pro Bars. On the Euro chart, this week a whole bunch of Big Pro Bars came in at 1.16. So we have an exhaustion sell at the moment, selling down, quite a lot of activity there. Let us see if that translates into a move down. We do not have an exhaustion buy at that point. These Big Pro Bars are super important. I am hoping we keep going a little on the Euro and the USD continues to weaken. I am still long Aussie at the moment, because we have not seen a profit taking pattern like that yet on the Aussie. But that is important, so let us see what happens on the Euro this week.
Silver (11:15): Similar sort of thing. Running into the highs this week at 66 and 67. Last week we had Big Pro Bars and an exhaustion buy, then this week we just had Amateur bars at those highs at 66, with a bearish divergence. We just need to crack 63 and that will show they were taking profits during this sequence and that we are going for a downtrending sequence in Silver. Let us see if that happens.
Gold (11:41): Gold is not quite as clear cut, although it is maxed out with Rambo patterns up here. We have Blue Professional bars taking profits into that move, but then Big Pro Bars stepped in with an exhaustion sell at 4300. They kept buying that retrace, so they have not taken profits yet. We have one Blue Professional bar at the end of the week and so on, but no Big Pro Bars yet. So let us see what Silver does and what Gold does. Is it going to diverge, with weakness in Silver while Gold keeps making highs? We will wait and see.
Bitcoin (12:12): Bitcoin maxed out here last week at 65K. Big Pro Bars stepped in and we got our Signal Short. They have not come back in. We know this area at 62.5K is super important - that is where they came in last time, so they need to hold this whole area. We have got lots of squeeze patterns happening, so there is a big trending move to come. I am wondering whether we break down a little until the Blue Professional bars step in at 60K or 61K down there. Anyway, Bitcoin, we will wait and see.
Japanese Yen (12:43): Everybody is interested in the Yen after the US government intervened. The Blue Professional bars are happening on the retrace. They are not happening on the way down - you do not see Blue Professional bars down at the lows. They are happening on the retrace. So although the US government tried to rescue the Yen, the Pros are not playing along. Let us see if we break down through 62.80, because that is the wrong way around: exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and Blue Professional up bars mean this has still got a breakdown in it. So the Japanese Yen is not doing what it is supposed to do.
Crude (13:18): Not much happening in Crude, but we are interested in it because of the Strait of Hormuz moves. Last time we had Big Pro Bars they were at 86 and we sold down. We bounced off pretty much nothing here - there were no Blue Professional bars down there - and we have just come into Rambo patterns at 84. So look for 80, to see if 80 gets broken and we come back down, because that was the last time the big Pros were in on the way up and they have not come in to rescue it on the way down. Potentially that is good for the end of the war, but we have been saying that for weeks and months now.
Natural Gas (13:53): Natural Gas is topping out, with Big Pro Bars coming at the highs. At 2.80 there was an exhaustion buy, bearish divergence, flush patterns, Blue Professional bars with blue bars at those highs, and then a Big Pro Bar coming in. Just one or two at that point, but we broke into a downtrend and we are seemingly continuing down. So Natural Gas is heading down.
Wheat (14:15): Wheat, however, is heading up. Wheat bottomed this week with an exhaustion buy and a bullish divergence. We came back down, and then on the retrace the Big Pro Bars stepped in. They did not buy it right at the lows, but as soon as we had a bit of a retrace, stair step, the trailing stop on Better Pro Am - there are the Big Pro Bars stepping in at 648 and we have rallied from there. So Wheat is in an uptrend.
The Week Ahead (14:43): Some interesting charts this week. Looking forward to following the markets during the day here in France, that will be nice. First thing I am going to do after I finish putting out this video is check what news announcements are due for next week. The Emini has coiled up a little at the moment, with very small ranges last week, so we are likely to see some range expansion this week. Let us see if that is to the downside on the Emini - that could be fun. For me the Euro chart is pretty important: is it ready to turn, in which case I need to be careful about my Aussie long trade. And Bitcoin might fall out of bed this week, so that might get interesting on the downside until the Professionals step in. Hope your trading is going well, and looking forward to next week’s trade.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every chart in this recap is running Better Trading Indicators on TradeStation, plotting CME average trade size so you can see the Blue Professional bars, the Amateur bars and the Big Pro Bars as they print. That is the whole edge here: follow the Professionals, fade the amateurs.
