Lot of email requests for an update after Wednesday's Emini action. I sense an anxiousness to get Short or decide whether to stay with Short positions already taken.
Remember, market tops always take longer to form than market bottoms – and we just made a new high. So we need to see weakness and then a re-test first – and that's if we just saw the high.
This rally is littered with commentators calling the top too early – including me with the weekly Hilbert Sine Wave turn at 920. I've learned my lesson.
TRIN Indicator (Emini daily)
The Better TRIN Oscillator has now reached +174. Overbought (obviously). If we see profit taking tomorrow this Oscillator will probably turn down. The Better TRIN Systems will signal profit taking and an initial Short position. That's if we see profit taking.
Hilbert Sine Wave Indicator (Emini daily)
Hilbert Sine Wave is yet to cross. We then also need to see price weakness for a cyclical turn ("End of Trend" warning signal) to be confirmed.
Volume Indicator (Emini daily)
This is the chart that has me most concerned. We have not seen large volume profit taking at the highs. The largest volume has been Professionals buying on panic selling by Amateurs. And I don't think the Pro's have had enough time to distribute their Long positions yet. However, they were selling into the close on Wednesday – and so that might be the first step.
Good luck with your Emini trading.
