This is the 25 October 2026 entry in the Weekly Futures Market Recap series, recorded back home in Biarritz after ten days in Ireland. Last weekend the question was whether 7680 was the Emini low. Thursday had the makings of it, with Big Pro Bars coming out of the lows, but Friday did not deliver the bounce and the Emini is still in a downtrend. The level to watch is 7717: until we break above it, the downtrend stands. Elsewhere the Pros made their choices clear. They bought Crude on the dip at 95 and it is now 103, while Gold fell $200 with no Professional buying at the lows.
TL;DR - This Week’s 3 Calls
- Emini: downtrend until 7717 breaks. Big Pro Bars came in on Thursday but there was no exhaustion sell, so it was not a proper low. End of trend is showing on two lowest timeframe cycles and the intermediate cycle, all at support on the highest timeframe, so a Sunday into Monday rally would not surprise me. Until price confirms above 7717, though, the trend is down and Monday could be a big ranging day.
- Uptrends intact in Crude, the Aussie Dollar and the Japanese Yen. Big Pro Bars bought the dip in Crude at 95 and in the Aussie Dollar at 70, and the Yen has a fresh Signal Long. No Professional profit taking at the highs in any of them yet.
- Signals Long in the ags, no bottom yet in Gold. Corn, Soybeans and Wheat all printed signals this week. Gold fell $200 with Big Pro Bars only on the retrace, never on the way down, and no Pros stepping in at the lows.
Macro Setup This Week
The uncertainty of the US midterms is hanging over the market, and the Emini could not hold the Thursday into Friday bounce above the key levels. In Europe, France is in the middle of large protests that began over classroom conditions and have turned into general cost of living demonstrations, with more than 100,000 people on the streets of Paris on Saturday and big crowds in Lyon and Bordeaux. Governments normally buy off protests like these, but France has run continuous deficits for more than 50 years and the interest cost on its debt is rising fast, so there is little room to do it. Energy costs, regulation that has slowed European growth and ongoing funding for Ukraine all add to the pressure. Crude climbing to 103 feeds straight back into that cost of living story.
Market-by-Market Breakdown
ES - Emini S&P 500 Futures: Bounce Fizzled, 7717 Is the Line
The Emini has been selling off for two or three weeks, and Wednesday into Thursday looked like the low. Friday is usually positive with a higher range, but the bounce never came. Daily chart (day session): nothing going on. No blue Professional bars, no exhaustion patterns and no flush patterns in the last several bars. Cyclically we had another sign of weakness. Cyclical support on the lowest timeframe came in at 7710, but the intermediate support has not printed yet. The thin and thicker lines are coming together at minus 100, so cyclical support is due, it just has not been confirmed by price. 135-minute: better. Big Pro Bars on this timeframe and support on the highest timeframe, and the bars have not turned red, so this has not turned over yet. 45-minute: it did not catch. Big Pro Bars came in, we rallied into an exhaustion buy, they came in again on the dip, we rallied a little and then collapsed this week back to test the same levels. All that work has to be done again. 15-minute: the week started with Big Pro Bars, an exhaustion buy and bullish divergence, and it looked like it was going somewhere. We rallied, ran out of puff and came back down into an exhaustion buy on the downside, with blue Professional bars on the retrace and white bars still showing the downtrend. 13,500 tick bar: this is why I hoped Friday would hold. The pattern at the lows should mirror the highs, where Big Pro Bars, blue boxes and blue bars kept printing before the Signal Short. On the way down the Pros only stepped in on the retraces. Thursday finally brought the Big Pro Bars into the lows, but with no exhaustion, so the signal never got going and we broke back into a downtrend. We have had a little bounce off a RAMBO pattern into a squeeze pattern, with the support and resistance lines close together, so a trending move is likely to come out of it. No blue Professional bars, no Amateur bars, and the background is grey. Cyclically there is a lot going on: two end of trends on the lowest timeframe and one on the intermediate, all at support on the highest timeframe. The Professionals have done the hard work, but the timing has not arrived. The level is 7717. Track the same order flow on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
NQ - Nasdaq-100 Emini Futures: Blue Professional Bars on the Dip, 30,000 to Break
The Nasdaq is showing signs of strength that the Emini is not. The last two bars were down, and both were blue Professional down bars. Normally on little retraces like this we trail up the stop, and this one tested into the trailed stop. It is a fairly decent read on Better Momentum, but there was no flush pattern or exhaustion pattern, so not many sellers were cleared out. To show the Professionals were buying this dip, we need to get above Friday’s high near 29,400 and then Thursday’s high above 30,000. Cyclically the intermediate support has not printed here either: the lowest timeframe support came in, but Thursday and Friday pushed straight through it.
CL - Crude Oil Futures: Pros Bought 95, Now 103
Crude is powering ahead. Last week we were in an uptrend to about 99, then RAMBO patterns came in and we fell off. When we came down to 95 to 96 the Professionals were all over it: exhaustion sell, blue boxes, blue bars, the background in blue and Big Pro Bars. They thought that was a deal at 95 to 96, and we have rallied since. They have not taken profits yet. There is an exhaustion buy with bearish divergence at the highs, but no blue Professional bars, so Crude is still in an uptrend at 103.
NG - Natural Gas Futures: Signal Short, Still Falling
Natural Gas is the flip side of Crude. It topped out a couple of weeks ago and is in a downtrend after a Signal Short. The Big Pro Bars did not really happen on the way down, they came in on the way up on the little bounce. An exhaustion buy with bearish divergence printed as it kept coming down, and RAMBO patterns showed up at the lows. It has been a big down move in Natural Gas.
ZC - Corn Futures: Signal Long at 456
After weeks of waiting, Corn finally gave us the signal this week. Exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue boxes and blue bars, then a signal test at 456. Let’s see if Corn bounces this week.
ZS - Soybean Futures: Signal Long, Stair Step Trade
Soybeans did a similar thing, with a signal this week. Big Pro Bars came in to get the move going and we have a stair step trade in progress.
ZW - Wheat Futures: Big Pro Bars, Signal Testing
Wheat had a huge amount of activity with Big Pro Bars at the lows. We got the signal, and it is testing at the moment. Wheat needs to get above 532 to 534 to show it has bottomed and the move is under way.
6E - Euro FX Futures: Mixed Bag, Downtrend
The Euro is a bit of a mixed bag. We had the signal with Big Pro Bars at the lows and a rally, but the Professionals did not take profits at the high. The activity came in on the retrace instead, and a lot of it did not go anywhere. The Euro is in a downtrend for now, and the pattern is less clear than the other currencies.
6B - British Pound Futures: Pro Profit Taking at 1.34
The British Pound is clearer. Blue Professional bars came in, then Big Pro Bars after that move to really get it going. This week we saw a little Professional profit taking up at 1.34, with a blue box and RAMBO patterns at the highs. Amateur bars are showing weakness now, but there are no Big Pro Bars topping it out properly. I still think the Pound is in an uptrend and is settling before the next push.
6A - Australian Dollar Futures: Pros Bought the Dip at 70
The Aussie Dollar is doing nicely, much like Crude: on the dip the Big Pro Bars stepped in at 70 and we have rallied from there. The signal came two weeks ago into the lows with an exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue Professional bars, blue boxes and the background in blue, all the Professionals getting ready. Then the signal test, Amateur down bars, and off we went. There has been no matching activity at the highs, with Big Pro Bars on the retrace rather than on the way up, so I still think the Aussie is in an uptrend.
6J - Japanese Yen Futures: Signal Long, Off to the Races
The Japanese Yen had a nice signal this week. Big Pro Bars at the lows, and bang, we are off to the races. The Professionals have not taken profits at the highs yet.
ZN - 10-Year Treasury Note Futures: Stair Step Rally, Profit Taking Starts
The 10-year notes rallied this week, set off by Big Pro Bars getting the move going. It was a stair step trade: the Professionals did not take profits at any of the highs, they got in on the retraces, and up we went. Profit taking is starting now and there is a little weakening, but it has been a nice rally.
GC - Gold Futures: Down $200, No Pros at the Lows
Where are the Big Pro Bars on Gold? On the previous drop they stepped in on the way down and we rallied. This time, when we came back to test, the Big Pro Bars came in on the retrace, not on the way down. That is why Gold fell out of bed this week, down about $200. That is big. They have not stepped in at the lows yet, although exhaustion sells are printing at the moment.
SI - Silver Futures: Pros Interested, No Signal
Silver looks a little different. The Professionals seemed interested on the way down, but it did not catch. There was no signal, and they did not come in again at the lows.
BTC - Bitcoin Futures: U-Turn From 85K, 82K to Break
Bitcoin had a nice setup. There was no exhaustion sell, but blue Professional bars came in on the way down at 80K and we started to race away. Nothing in the signals or indicators said 85K was the top, but it was a pretty severe U-turn. We raced back down to test 79K, with RAMBO patterns into the lows. If we get above 82K, Bitcoin might have another go at rallying. A weird little pattern this week.
Pattern of the Week: No Exhaustion, No Proper Low
The Emini 13,500 tick bar chart is the lesson this week. At the highs, the Professionals left a full set of footprints: Big Pro Bars, blue boxes, exhaustion and blue Professional bars, then a Signal Short. A proper low should mirror that. Thursday gave us the Big Pro Bars at the lows, which looked good, but no exhaustion sell, which means the sellers had not run out of volume. The signal never got going and we broke back into the downtrend. Gold made the same point from the other side: Big Pro Bars on the retrace rather than on the way down are not Professionals buying the dip, and Gold dropped $200. Big Pro Bars alone are not enough. Wait for exhaustion and the full pattern before you trust a low. Follow the Professionals, Fade the Amateurs.
Looking Ahead to the Week of 26 October 2026
The Emini is in a squeeze pattern with cyclical support due on several timeframes, so a trending move is coming. Watch 7717 Sunday into Monday: a break above it puts the Emini back in an uptrend, while a failure could mean a big ranging day on Monday and more downside. The Nasdaq needs 29,400 and then 30,000. Watch for Professional profit taking in Crude at 103, the ag signals following through, and whether the Pros finally step in at the lows in Gold.
Full Transcript (click to expand)
Full transcript of the video above, cleaned for readability.
Intro (00:00): Okay, it is Sunday 25 October 2026, just gone 2:43 am Chicago time. I do hope you are doing well. It is the weekend, so it is time for another weekend futures market recap. We will go through 15 of the largest futures markets and I will show you what I am seeing on my charts. I hope your trading is going well.
France Protests (00:22): We are back from Ireland, having spent ten days there. It was glorious. Back to Biarritz in France. Of course, all over the news is the rioting and protesting happening in France. I have to say, in our little quiet corner of the world, not much is going on. The town of Bayonne yesterday had some street protests that the police were pretty active in, but most of the activity is happening in the major cities. Paris had over 100,000 people in the demonstrations yesterday, and Lyon and Bordeaux, I think, were similarly large. People are pretty angry. This has morphed from a student protest about conditions in classrooms to general cost of living demonstrations. Sometimes I feel as if I talk too much in the last several videos about our observations from where we are, and I should just get to the charts, but we are here on the ground and you might be interested. There are three points I would make. The first is that Macron is a lame duck president at the moment. We have elections in 2027, he has had two terms and he will not be standing again. Although these demonstrations are being led pretty much by the left, I think they will result in Marine Le Pen and the right being voted into office. The vast majority of people just want this to stop, and the level of destruction of private and public property is disgusting. The second thing is that the power of the police and the teachers is much diminished. We had a famous case here in 2023 where police shot a young man who would not stop at a roadblock, and he was killed. They still cannot decide whether the policeman will be charged with murder or manslaughter, so that is still outstanding. But the fact is the police are reluctant to use excessive force, although looking at some of the imagery from yesterday’s demonstration in Paris you would not think that. The dynamic with the teachers has changed too. We know a couple of policemen and a couple of teachers, and the teachers say that in the last 20 years or so the dynamic with the kids has changed. They no longer feel they have the power in the classroom, and I think that is because the parents are always standing up for the kids. That may be a common theme across most developed countries. And thirdly, normally in these circumstances governments pay off the demonstrators in some way, they give them a bone, and I think they are going to struggle to do that in France. There are obvious deficit problems and the interest cost on French debt is skyrocketing. I have said this multiple times: France has not balanced a budget since 1973, so that is 50 plus years of continuous deficits. They are under pressure not to continue deficit spending, but what else do they have? They have killed economic growth in Europe with excess regulation, pro green policies have increased the cost of energy (not so much in France, because it is 80% nuclear), and they are stepping in every other day giving more money to Ukraine to fight the war against Russia. So it is a mess, a real mess. I do not know how it is all going to play out, but those are a couple of observations from here.
Emini Daily Chart (03:39): Let’s talk about some charts, starting with the Emini. We have been selling off for two or three weeks now, and I thought we would catch midweek. We certainly had the makings of it Wednesday into Thursday, but Friday we did not get the bounce. Friday is usually a little bit positive with a higher range, and I thought we would get a decent bounce. We had the makings on Thursday, with Big Pro Bars coming out of the lows. On the Emini daily chart, day session only, you can see we have got nothing going on: no blue Professional bars, no exhaustion patterns, no flush patterns in the last several bars. Cyclically we have had another sign of weakness. We have got cyclical support due. You can see the lowest timeframe one has come in here at 7710, but we have not had the intermediate support print yet. We have a confluence down here with the low and intermediate lines, the thin and slightly thicker lines, coming together at minus 100, turned and crossed. So we are due for cyclical support, but it has not been confirmed by price yet.
Nasdaq (04:47): However, on the Nasdaq, and I do not often show you this, we do have some signs of strength. We have got blue Professional down bars on the last two bars, which were down, and normally when we have little retraces like this we trail up the stop, and we tested into the stop being trailed up here. It is a fairly decent read on Better Momentum. We did not get rid of a lot of sellers, there was no flush pattern or exhaustion pattern, but we need to get above the high of Friday and then the high of Thursday, so above 29,400 or so and then above 30,000, to show that the Professionals were buying into this dip. That is at least something happening there. On this chart the cyclical support in the intermediate timeframe has not happened yet either. We have got our support in the lowest timeframe, but we were not caught by it, we just pushed through with Thursday’s and Friday’s activity. These two lines coming together down to minus 100 will give us the timing for when that happens. I hoped it would happen sooner, but it has not as yet.
Emini 135-Minute and 45-Minute (06:00): As we go through the timeframes you will see we potentially have a nice Monday happening. On the 135-minute chart we have Big Pro Bars on this timeframe, so we have some activity supporting us there, and we have also had the support in the highest timeframe come in. The bars have not turned red, so this has not turned over yet. The 135-minute chart is looking a little bit better. The 45-minute chart did not catch. We had Big Pro Bars come in here and a little bit of a rally that ended with an exhaustion buy. They came in again at this level, Big Pro Bars buying that dip, we had a little rally and then it collapsed this week, and we are back down testing into those levels. So we have got to do all of that work again.
Emini 15-Minute (06:40): On the 15-minute chart we add the vertical solid yellow lines to mark the beginning and end of the week. At the start of this week it looked like this was going somewhere, because the Big Pro Bars came in and caught an exhaustion buy with bullish divergence. We started to rally, then just ran out of puff. We have come back down and now have an exhaustion buy on the downside, with blue Professional bars on the retrace. In terms of cycles, we had a confluence of end of trends here, which is why we had a little rally, and now we are breaking through supports, with white bars showing a downtrend still on the 15-minute chart.
Emini 13,500 Tick Bar (07:28): This is the 13,500 tick bar chart, and this is why I was hoping Friday’s activity would hold us. Go back to last weekend: I was talking about the patterns at the lows mirroring the patterns at the highs. Going back a couple of weeks, we had Big Pro Bars, blue boxes and blue bars at the highs, then a Signal Short, and every time we retraced on the way down there were no blue Professional bars on the declines. They all stepped in on the retraces. So we were in a downtrend. At the end of last weekend we had some Professional bars step in, and I said I did not particularly like it. We could rally from there, but it was not a proper low because we had no exhaustion and no Big Pro Bars, and the bars were not happening on the way down. That resulted in a little reaction rally that lasted a couple of days. Then we had exhaustion patterns up here, an exhaustion buy, bearish divergence and a flush, so we ran out of volume, the Professional bars stepped in with blue boxes at those highs, and we sold off. That reaction ended up testing into the lows, and then the Big Pro Bars stepped in. So that looked good, finally, but there was no exhaustion. We had a signal, it never really got going, and we broke into a downtrend again. We have had a little bounce off a RAMBO pattern into a squeeze pattern. The price support and resistance lines are close, so we will likely have a trending move out of that. No blue Professional bars, no Amateur bars, and the background is grey. We are in a downtrend at this point. I hoped Thursday would save the day and we would get above the 7717 level, break into an uptrend properly and get this thing going. That is a shame. In terms of cyclical patterns we have a lot going on. You can see all of the end of trends, two on the lowest timeframe and one on the intermediate timeframe, all happening around support on the highest timeframe. So I would not be surprised if Sunday into Monday this thing did rally and got above 7717, because the Professionals have done the hard work. Timing wise it just has not happened yet. This whole level of cyclical patterns has held at the moment, but we have got a squeeze pattern, they have all come together, so is this just going to collapse and keep going down? At the moment we do not have the strength to show we are changing direction. The level I am looking at is 7717, and so far it has not happened. We have got all these exhaustion patterns in the background at the highs, and we usually like to see duplicates of that coming down.
Crude Oil (10:40): Crude is powering ahead. Last week we were in an uptrend to 99 or so, then we had some RAMBO patterns and fell off. When we came down to 96, 95, here we go: exhaustion sell, blue boxes, blue bars, background in blue, Big Pro Bars. They stepped in here, they thought that was a deal at 95 to 96, and we have rallied since. They have not taken profits yet. We have got an exhaustion buy with bearish divergence, but no blue Professional bars, so Crude is still in an uptrend. Where are we at? 103.
Natural Gas (11:14): Natural Gas, though, is the flip side. It has been coming off and topped out a couple of weeks ago. We are in a downtrend and had a Signal Short. The Big Pro Bars did not really happen on the way down, they were on the way up on this little bounce. Exhaustion buy with bearish divergence as it kept coming down, and RAMBO patterns at those lows. So that has been a big down move in Natural Gas.
Corn (11:40): Corn. I am long the ags at the moment, because I have been talking about a signal coming in, and we finally got our signals this week. We have got an exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue boxes and blue bars, and the signal test here at 456. Let’s see if Corn bounces this week.
Soybeans and Wheat (11:59): Soybeans, a similar thing, a signal this week. Big Pro Bars came in here to get the move going and we have a stair step trade happening in Soybeans. And lastly Wheat: a huge amount of activity with Big Pro Bars coming in here. We got our signal, which is sitting, testing at the moment. It needs to get above 532 to 534 to show that it has bottomed and we will get going. We will see where that goes.
Euro (12:26): Forex charts. The Euro is a bit of a mixed bag. We had our signal, Big Pro Bars came in at the lows and we rallied, but they did not take profits at the high. It happened on the retrace instead, and a lot of activity here did not really go anywhere. We are in a downtrend at the moment on the Euro, so a less clear pattern there.
British Pound (12:44): The British Pound is a little bit clearer, with profit taking this week up at 1.34. We had blue Professional bars come in, then Big Pro Bars after that move to really get it going, but we just ended up with a little bit of Professional profit taking here, with the blue box and RAMBO patterns at the highs. We are weak at the moment, Amateur bars, but we have not topped this out properly with Big Pro Bars. So I still think we are in an uptrend on the British Pound, just settling until we get ready for the next push.
Aussie Dollar (13:17): The Aussie Dollar is also doing nicely. This is similar to the Crude chart, where on the dip the Big Pro Bars stepped in at 70 and we have rallied from there. We had our signal two weeks ago down here into the lows: exhaustion sell, bullish divergence, blue Professional bars, blue boxes, background in blue, all the Professionals getting ready. We had our signal, the test, Amateur down bars, and then we got going. This has not happened on the flip side, with Big Pro Bars coming on the retrace, not on the way up. So I still think we are in an uptrend on the Aussie Dollar.
Japanese Yen (13:50): And the Japanese Yen, a nice signal this week. Big Pro Bars down here, bang, we are off to the races. They have not taken profits yet at the highs on the Japanese Yen. So all of those are fairly good.
10-Year Notes (14:01): The 10-years. We had our rally this week, set off with Big Pro Bars getting the move going. A stair step trade: the Professionals had not taken profits here, here or here, they got in on the retrace, there is our stair step, bang, we head up. They are starting to take profits now, so a little bit of weakening at the moment on the 10-years, but that has been a nice little rally.
Gold (14:24): Gold. Now, how can I tell you about Gold? Where are the Big Pro Bars? They are happening on the retrace here. They did not come in on the way down like this one. On the way down here they stepped in and we had our rally, but when we came back to test, the Big Pro Bars came on the retrace, not on the way down. And that is why Gold fell out of bed this week, down $200 or so. That is big. They have not stepped in here at the lows, although we have exhaustion sells happening at the moment.
Silver (14:55): Silver looks a little bit different. They were seemingly interested on the way down, but it did not catch. We did not get a signal, and they did not come in again down here at the lows. So that is interesting. Something is happening on my charts, it looks like they are cycling through and reloading data. All right, maybe we have settled down.
Bitcoin (15:13): Let’s look at Bitcoin this week. This was a nice setup. We did not have an exhaustion sell, but we had blue Professional bars come in on the way down here at 80K, and we started to race away. Nothing particularly showed us why 85K was the top. There was nothing in the signals or indicators to say it was over, but there was a pretty severe U-turn there, and we raced down to test 79K, with RAMBO patterns into those lows. Let’s see if we get above 82K here. Bitcoin might have another go at rallying. That was a weird little pattern this week.
Wrap-Up (15:56): That is the last chart I have lined up to talk about. So where does that leave us? We still have the uncertainty of the midterms hanging over our heads at the moment. We have not managed to hold Thursday into Friday and break above these significant levels. We are in a downtrend, and these things could just give way on Monday and we could have a big ranging day. For me, the level is 7717. Let’s see if we get close to that Sunday into Monday, but until we break above that level we are in a downtrend. We could get rangier on Monday. Anyway, I hope your trading is going well, and I am looking forward to next week.
Want These Calls With the Indicators I Use on the Charts?
Every Big Pro Bar, blue box, exhaustion signal, flush pattern and RAMBO pattern in this recap comes off CME average trade size data, so you can see where the Professionals are buying and selling instead of guessing. This week it showed the Pros buying Crude at 95 before the run to 103, and stepping aside while Gold fell $200. Get the same read on your own charts with Better Trading Indicators.
