The dust has settled (mostly) and now it’s time to re-think the trading and investment landscape. I don’t think the big money really believed Trump would get in – so they’ve been caught off guard. And need to start moving some big licks of capital around the board. Here’s what I’m (tentatively) seeing:
- The US and UK are pro-business (lowering corporate tax rates, reducing regulation, stimulating domestic industry, etc.) and their stock markets and currencies are strengthening as a result.
- Europe is anti-business and the unthinkable is becoming a possibility – the European project may not survive and the Euro is in trouble. (Bitcoin is ready-and-waiting to fill the void.)
- Greater US protectionism will lead to higher prices and wages – inflation may finally be on the way and so rates will rise and Bonds will fall.
- US energy independence is bullish for Oil Services and Oil Exploration but not for Crude.
- US infrastructure stimulus appears to have already lit a fuse under Copper.
- A detente in relations with Russia would be good for RSX, but we also need Crude to strengthen.
Trade well next week.